Rin Tohsaka and Takane Shijou

I entered for both but if I win Rin I'm likely to use her to get a Takane if I don't win her. XD

Entered for both girls! Not expecting much luck but at least I'm trying :p

Good luck everyone!

Out of pure curiosity and a general need to know how things work, has anyone ever been able to figure out in general what the ratio of available dolls to lottery entrants might be?

As far as I can remember Volks keeps that really under wraps. I think it's been attempted to figure it out before, but it could only be accurate if we knew accurately how many entered and how many people won. I just don't see how it would be possible to know without Volk's info that they aren't giving out.

 

~Sister Kyoya

Out of pure curiosity and a general need to know how things work, has anyone ever been able to figure out in general what the ratio of available dolls to lottery entrants might be?

As far as I can remember Volks keeps that really under wraps. I think it's been attempted to figure it out before, but it could only be accurate if we knew accurately how many entered and how many people won. I just don't see how it would be possible to know without Volk's info that they aren't giving out.

 

~Sister Kyoya

I'm equally curious how big each batch is, even guessing a number is quite difficult

Out of pure curiosity and a general need to know how things work, has anyone ever been able to figure out in general what the ratio of available dolls to lottery entrants might be? Obviously the numbers would change with each doll production run/popularity but it's something I've always been curious about!

The last time the lottery win rate thread was tallied it was 50/50, but that does include Volks USA too which may skew things a bit (not helpful if you're going through International).

 

It's not really a useful number as far as accurate statistics goes, but I'm still surprised it was 50/50.

I'll be entering for Takane for my friend Mimiyo, no one for me this time! Good luck to everyone!

 

I hope this isn't rude somehow but next time we meet up you are getting serious hugs! It's so nice of you!

Out of pure curiosity and a general need to know how things work, has anyone ever been able to figure out in general what the ratio of available dolls to lottery entrants might be? Obviously the numbers would change with each doll production run/popularity but it's something I've always been curious about!

The last time the lottery win rate thread was tallied it was 50/50, but that does include Volks USA too which may skew things a bit (not helpful if you're going through International).

 

It's not really a useful number as far as accurate statistics goes, but I'm still surprised it was 50/50.

Regardless of accuracy the fact that there was much of any data is surprising! Especially those results? That gives me slightly better hope as I believe my friend will be entering for Rin for me as well.

 

I do believe that production runs are probably different depending on the doll. I'm assuming that they'll be making a lot of both Rin and Takane because their series are so popular (I'm basing this on the availability of merchandising and the overall franchise sizes) versus something from a smaller or less popular series.

 

Thanks for that link, I'm gonna read the whole thread. >w<

I'd planned to sew something for my doll today but instead I'm just reading data. Oops.

 

Edit: I got curious and did win rates on the Type Moon dolls based off the data listed in that thread. I've removed Illya because it wasn't easy to discern if people were listing Prisma Illya or just original Illya at least three times. Rin's data might be a bit off as well as I think there was one or two that I couldn't determine if it was Tohsaka or Shiburin (IM@S). I combined data from VUSA, Vint, and 3rd party dealers.

 

#win/#loss - win% (rounded)

Aoko Aozaki: 10/23 - 30%

Alice Kuonji: 5/5 - 50%

Matou Sakura: 5/0 - 100%

Saber: 1/1 - 50%

Saber Lily: 8/8 - 50%

Saber Alter: 1/1 - 50%

Saber Alter II*: 2/2 - 50%

Saber Extra*: 0/1 - 0% (lol)

Tohsaka Rin: 6/1 - 86%

*weren't these preorder dolls? Did I miss a lotto for them?

 

There's obviously not enough data on some of the girls (like Extra) but hopefully it's a good sign that the most popular girls seem to have a 50% win rate or higher. To note, Aoko and Alice are from Witch on the Holy Night which to my knowledge is the least well known Type Moon franchise. Everyone else is from some incarnation of Fate/, which is suuuper popular.

P.S. I'm awful at math and I feel like I did something wrong for Rin. Feel free to correct me.

Edited November 30, 2015 by Guest

I think in the 'good old days' lotteries for DD were less competitive. And sometimes there are lotteries where pretty much everyone who entered won, like for Airy, Neris or Magic Princess Lucy. For my part I've lost the last 10 lotteries I entered, even for less popular girls like Makoto and Alna. If I lose for Takane I'm gonna assume my Volks account is cursed and just start a new one

Saber Alter II*: 2/2 - 50%

Saber Extra*: 0/1 - 0% (lol)

 

*weren't these preorder dolls? Did I miss a lotto for them?

 

yawp, pre-order girls! Everyone who ordered one obv got one (if they paid on time, of course)

Volks had so many orders they couldn't even make other blank bodies that year!!

 

 

I do wonder if maybe Volks has upped their production numbers recently? Because it seemed with the Sasara re-release ... majority States-sides that entered lottery got her!

Saber Alter II*: 2/2 - 50%

Saber Extra*: 0/1 - 0% (lol)

 

*weren't these preorder dolls? Did I miss a lotto for them?

 

yawp, pre-order girls! Everyone who ordered one obv got one (if they paid on time, of course)

Actually, I think those are for the mini-lotto Volks USA did at the end of last year.

 

I do wonder if maybe Volks has upped their production numbers recently? Because it seemed with the Sasara re-release ... majority States-sides that entered lottery got her!

I think they really pumped up the production numbers for those two (Melty & Sasara) because they were Dollfie Dream Selection winners. I'm still kind of stumped why Prisma Illya had so few wins. They really haven't had many MDDs.

Saber Alter II*: 2/2 - 50%

Saber Extra*: 0/1 - 0% (lol)

 

*weren't these preorder dolls? Did I miss a lotto for them?

 

yawp, pre-order girls! Everyone who ordered one obv got one (if they paid on time, of course)

Actually, I think those are for the mini-lotto Volks USA did at the end of last year.

 

I do wonder if maybe Volks has upped their production numbers recently? Because it seemed with the Sasara re-release ... majority States-sides that entered lottery got her!

I think they really pumped up the production numbers for those two (Melty & Sasara) because they were Dollfie Dream Selection winners. I'm still kind of stumped why Prisma Illya had so few wins. They really haven't had many MDDs.

I very very vaguely remember that coming up, as I recall having a friend pass the link on to me around then as she knew I was interested in Saber.

 

I hope they'll estimate well enough that we can all get what all of us entered for >w< That'll never happen, but I'm gonna dream! I think they definitely know how popular both IM@S and Fate/ are so I'm hoping that they have sufficient supply.

 

I wonder what caused the win rate for Aoko to be so low? My guess would be a combination of low stock and unexpected popularity/entrants cause dang, she's cute. I'm admittedly not familiar how popular Witch on the Holy Night is in Japan is but judging from the merchandising has a much smaller presence than Fate/ or Tsukihime or even Kara no Kyokai.

 

Edit: They also may be allotting more dolls for the US store than before? There's so many variables involved. I wonder what the average percentage of dolls set aside for Volks USA is.

I'm thinking I'll just enter the US lottery, myself - the international one is cheaper, but I'm not sure I want to deal with the shipping there. I've never done a lottery before, so I'm a little nervous about it.

Guys, I understand wanting to understand how the lottery numbers work and all but I think it's getting a bit too off topic for this thread. Let's steer away from that from now on okay?

 

 

Billy

I enter for takane but I expect nothing, since i never get any dolls from these lottery

Rin has never been one of the limiteds that has caught my eye, but something about this new face makes her seem like a perfect sister for my girl.

 

I had more or less come to the conclusion that I was only going to have a single DD. That's enough, after all. But for some reason Rin is making me rethink that. I also like that this is a limited I could get in three months rather than having to wait a year or more.

 

I think I'm going to enter for her. If I get lucky, then WOOT! If I whiff, then it just wasn't meant to be.

if I win multiples then I know I'll be able to move the extras on easily enuff

 

*flails* I'm already gonna declare myself first in your likely future "extra Rin" sale post!

We all know it's gonna be happening (my rotten luck of not winning of course)

Is Volks USA ever on time for opening things for the lottery? Been refreshing Rin's page every minute for the last 18 minutes and it still says "Out Of Stock." (I'm cranky and wanna go to bed but too impatient to do it after I wake up.)

 

Edit- Nevermind, just got my entry in. Good thing too because I was starting to fall asleep waiting for the page to reload.

 

~Sister Kyoya

Is Volks USA ever on time for opening things for the lottery?

..snip...

Edit- Nevermind, just got my entry in.

 

Good luck!

 

I checked in about 30 minutes past the start time and it accepted my entry.

Wow...I completely forgot it was the 1st already! Put in my entry- I'm worried it's probably the only way I'll be able to get Rin's uniform set. I can never move fast enough to win clickwar outfits. Best of luck everyone!

I'm a dork and set an alarm on my computer, then rechecked the date on Volks' website about five times thinking I still got the date and time wrong, despite being in the same time zone that Volks USA is... My entry finally went in at 11:24, so apparently Volks sees the posted time not as a hard rule but more of a guideline.

 

I'm currently in a ferocious battle with myself over if I should set an alarm for when the results are supposed to begin being announced, of if I should just wait and see what happens without getting an OCD spaz attack over it. Yes, it is true, I get OCD over being OCD. Now there's a losing battle if I ever saw one...

 

~Sister Kyoya

if I win multiples then I know I'll be able to move the extras on easily enuff

 

*flails* I'm already gonna declare myself first in your likely future "extra Rin" sale post!

We all know it's gonna be happening (my rotten luck of not winning of course)

 

 

Ha ha! Actually you'd be number THREE behind two other people who've already asked about any multiples I may get. But don't worry, I seriously doubt I'll get multiples of her, my success with Volks lotteries is also pretty rough.

 

I put in my entry with Volks USA today too and so did my Mom. Between us we have 4 entries in for Rin ( International and US ) and also 3 in for her uniform ( got my GF to put in for one too ) so I'm praying I get at least one Rin and one uniform. We'll see how lady luck treats me this time around!

 

 

 

Billy

Is Rin's outfit up for lottery too? I don't see it, just Rin and Takane :/

Is Rin's outfit up for lottery too? I don't see it, just Rin and Takane :/

 

for possibly the tenth time - Rin uniform set is Volks USA lottery only

Japan is After Event in clicky war

Whelp, I'm in at Volks USA now too. With my luck I wont win either, so I'm not expecting much, but on the off chance, I better keep come money squirreled away in case I win both.

I endered two times for Rin as well. If someone want to exchange back ups I am in

(Just have in mind my backup comes with VAT :S )