New announcements? SAO and Emilia Dollfie Dreams

Personally I don't mind the change , it will make it harder for scalpers and people who get friends and family to make extra entries and therefore it will make it easier and fairer for the people who actually want to collect the dolls ,

Ive seen people comment on FB that they have 10 entries in past lotteries using multiple emails and accounts only to win 4 dolls and only buy two , one to keep and one to sell and they didn't care if some of their accounts were banned from future lotteries because they just get new emails accounts and make new Volks accounts , These people will now have to pay up front and wont use multiple accounts because they will not want to pay for multiple dolls .

Also Some scalpers enter the lottery and win dolls and then put them on ebay soon as they win and sell as "pre order" and sell the doll for a profit before they have paid or received the doll , these scalpers will have to pay up front IF they have the money but no longer will they make money just by being the middle man on "pre orders"

Sure some scalpers will still get involved but the numbers will decline making it better for us collector

 

I good move it think

I get the business strategy. It will probably cut down on the number of multiple entries drastically. The only thing I would be slightly worried about it Volks getting less entries than normal and then deciding that the "lack of interest" in Kirito is enough proof not to make any more male DDs.

 

I get that lotteries are really popular in Japan, but I do feel that they should at least lower the new system to half the cost of the doll (still a good chunk of money for security purposes) or just move to a pre-order system. Even if it takes a bit longer to get all the pre-orders done. I mean, Volks is one of the bigger BJD companies out there, right? They should be able to work something out with their production line to handle pre-orders and keep their regular standard girls in stock. Of course, I don't know the first thing about actually producing these girls, so it could be a lot more challenging than I think.

 

As much as I love Asuna, I'm definitely going to be sitting this one out. There is no possible way I could scrape the money together in time. But, I will happily cheer on anyone who is going to try for her and/or Kirito.

I personally don't mind the change as I always pay up front in full when I have pre-ordered doll stuff. The ordering without paying, or just doing a deposit and then having the worry about trying to come up with the funds in time would stress me to no end. My question for those that pre-order and then take that time to save up the funds, why not just save up now and make sure you have the money for 1 or two dolls so that if one you want pops up you can have the funds on hand instead of now working to get those funds because you ordered the doll?

 

Also, I'm sure Volks is wise to the scalpers and those that make multiple entries, which I bet had some bearing in this change, so make it more far to those that really love these dolls and want to get one. Therefore I'm sure they know entries will be down as not everyone has funds on hand for a doll. Could they of announced the change a year before putting it into practice, sure, then people would be able to save up and have their doll fund before the first lottery done this way.

 

I might even suggest that Volks does know there is a sizable segment that wants DD boys, and they made this change for the new boy after what may of happened with Len. Perhaps they did make a lot of Lens and got even more lottery entries for him, but then a very large group didn't pay for Len because they were really due to multiple entries from those that wanted him so badly they had everyone they know put in an entry. Like if you put in your own, and got 6 other people to do the same for you, and if you even won 4 of those but you only pay for one. That's 3 Lens Volks is now sitting on that could of gone to people that would of paid. After they lottery they go up on the site, but now since you didn't pay for them up front, people didn't save up between the lottery and delivery period because they didn't win, so again the Lens aren't bought. So in the end, IMHO, they are not just doing themselves a favor, but you too by making sure way more of those that really want the doll will get it.

 

So in summary, instead of griping about it, start saving up so that when the next round of dolls come up and you want one, you have the funds on hand to drop on it. If you are the kind (Like me.) that has a hard time not spending their money, create a separate savings only account to store the money that you can transfer money into easy, but have to show up at the bank in person to take any out.

Personally, I see the logic in the hold, and am fine with that--it's the length of time for the hold that's potentially problematic. A lot of banks, cards, and billing cycles look at the start of the calendar month as the refresh/turnover point, so having the hold overlap that could seriously screw with such systems' billing and statement practices. It'll also almost certainly mess up anyone using Mint or similar budget software, as well as making extra money tetris necessary even if you have the funds laying around.

 

TL;DR: holding money makes sense, but holding it for like, a month, especially over the calendar month changeover, does not. I hope Volks changes that period to something more like 2 weeks in the future.

 

I do understand how wanting extra time to scrape money together is nice for some budgets, but my personal strategy is closer to Sinclair's. I'd much rather pay for something outright and be guaranteed I'm getting it, because a LOT can happen in real life in the months between the preorder period closing and the actual shipping/billing date.

 

I.E.: During the preorder period for the first Miku, I had a decently paying job and a bunch of savings thanks to living with my grandparents. In the year between the preorder period closing, and the time Volks sent out payment invoices to those who either got her via International or used USA's down payment option, my financial and living situation COMPLETELY changed: I got laid off, got slammed with a huge tax bill because I'd been switched to a contractor the year before (and I had no idea what the real ramifications of that were), and then suffered a months-long-sinus infection *during* my job hunt post-layoff that made actually getting a new job a nightmare. If I hadn't paid Miku in full, I wouldn't have been able to afford her.

 

Paying further down the line is, basically, a gamble on your own life situation (and if you're buying from Volks International, also on the exchange rate). I don't blame people for being willing to take that gamble, but my own life has made me extremely reluctant to do it myself.

hmm... I get why they did it. Not sure if it will really fix scalpers... will they be vetting the card you use? I'd think for resellers having multiple credit cards in multiple names at multiple addresses would be hard to juggle..or is Volks not even going to look at that?

 

I'm just never a fan of companies doing a hold bc they can take their sweet time in canceling it.

...I'm sorry, Volks basically wants an interest-free loan for a month in exchange for an essentially non-existant chance that I might win a doll? Am I reading that right? Ahahahaha, NO.

 

My interest in DDs has been steadily on the decline over the last year, in part because of the removal of all US-based options means I basically can NOT get a doll at original price (see: my flawless losing streak of 0/13 international lottos dating all the way back to 2012!) and also a lack of releases that I find appealing (Alisa in Summer 2015 was the last truly compelling DD for me), but this might well kill it.

 

For years, I've known with absolute certainty that I would lose the international lotto but entered anyway because it cost me nothing. Now, why bother? Why give them money upfront when I have never won a single international lotto in five years.

 

I'll continue to adore the girls that I do have, but I can say I will probably never enter another Volks lotto and may actually never get another DD unless something truly *spectacular* is released and I can find her for a *reasonable* price on the second-hand market (and the chances of that seem about as good as the chances of me winning an international lotto).

 

tl;dr - Cauldy, OUT!

What works for some people doesn't work for everyone. I personally don't understand not preordering if I can't afford it 'now', because ideally I'm not paying for it 'now'. Obviously you need to be sure that you WILL be able to of course, but to use my personal experience I don't want to buy more than one expensive thing each month. I get paid once a month, so let's use Dolpa as an example. This months pay is mostly going towards shopping at next months Dolpa. Now, if I entered for Renee and did win her, and didn't have to pay until June, I have two more pay days before then. But, if I have to pay for her at Dolpa (and this is not even guaranteeing I can have her), then I've got basically no spending money for Dolpa itself. In a way it almost defeats the purpose of going - I'd happily pony up the cash for a guaranteed preorder even if I had no more spending money like with Rin and Len, because the guaranteed preorder gives a point to attending. It just seems insane to me to attend an event and use up my spending money to pay for the -chance- to win something. And full price at that!

 

(Note this is only my example, and I am only giving it as an example of a potential effect. I am well aware that it sounds selfish to complain about that but I also feel like within a luxury hobby I can complain about things if I want lol. Tl:dr I'm in the same boat as Cauldroness, I don't want to surrender money for a 'chance' when it should be a guarantee)

 

Edit: not to mention the psychological effect. It's human nature for your brain to automatically treat something you paid for as something you literally bought. Even with the refund if you lose, it will make the loss even more painful.

 

Note, I still don't know if the new rules affects Dolpa at all or just online lottery entries because I can't find anything to indicate so. To be honest, I have a sinking feeling that it could be only online orders specifically because of international lottery flakers, which seems unfair :/

  Cauldroness said:

...I'm sorry, Volks basically wants an interest-free loan for a month in exchange for an essentially non-existant chance that I might win a doll? Am I reading that right? Ahahahaha, NO.

 

That was literally my exact same thought. -____-;;

It's smart and dumb at the same time. Like I completely understand it from a business perspective, and Volks is a business that aims to generate a profit. But as a fan, this change feels really unfair... I would feel so much more comfortable if it was like only a 50% upfront payment rather than the full amount, with no guarantee that you're actually going to get what you're paying for.

 

I also wonder how it'll work with PayPal, would they just refund the payment? Aren't there still fees and currency conversions?

  vanillalilly said:

I also wonder how it'll work with PayPal, would they just refund the payment? Aren't there still fees and currency conversions?

My proxy lets you put a deposit using PayPal, which is 100% reversed with no fees as long as you do it within the time limit (3 months IIRC). It's not the same as a purchase.

Volks,

 

Also they better not swim in our lotto pool money before they return it back!

Honestly I'm questioning my will to participate in this lottery myself considering the cirbleepstances. I get why it's happening but if they have to operate their lotteries like this to make profits then it makes doing lotteries even more stressful and upsetting for customers. Especially considering that Volks no longer has the market nearly as cornered as they used to this seems like a really dumb move. Then again, leave it to volks to seemingly lose their ability to think when it comes to decisions like this.

 

At the same time I really would like to make my OCs and I feel like this will make my chances in aftermarket go to nearly nothing, especially with Kirito.

I just remembered. . . Don't quite a few banks and cards put holds on your card for the doll amount ANYWAY when you enter a Volks lottery? I know that Volks USA had/has a note about that on their lottery pages. This basically amounts to Volks making it consistent across the board. :/

  Poofiemus said:

I just remembered. . . Don't quite a few banks and cards put holds on your card for the doll amount ANYWAY when you enter a Volks lottery? I know that Volks USA had/has a note about that on their lottery pages. This basically amounts to Volks making it consistent across the board. :/

 

I haven't entered for a lottery on Volks International, but none of the lotteries I've entered on Volks USA (for clothing items or my one doll lottery) have ever required me to enter payment information at the time of entry.

  Poofiemus said:

I just remembered. . . Don't quite a few banks and cards put holds on your card for the doll amount ANYWAY when you enter a Volks lottery? I know that Volks USA had/has a note about that on their lottery pages. This basically amounts to Volks making it consistent across the board. :/

 

No need to fill in your payment details when applying for the lottery up till now. But you're referring to credit reserving, that's the way it should be though... creditcard companies can reserve the money from your card so you can't spend that part and thus guaranteed money for the shop. I'm kind of baffled why they actually need to charge the card and need the actual amount of money for a /month/.

  ArcticWolfie said:

  Poofiemus said:

I just remembered. . . Don't quite a few banks and cards put holds on your card for the doll amount ANYWAY when you enter a Volks lottery? I know that Volks USA had/has a note about that on their lottery pages. This basically amounts to Volks making it consistent across the board. :/

 

No need to fill in your payment details when applying for the lottery up till now. But you're referring to credit reserving, that's the way it should be though... creditcard companies can reserve the money from your card so you can't spend that part and thus guaranteed money for the shop. I'm kind of baffled why they actually need to charge the card and need the actual amount of money for a /month/.

 

Ah, I realized that I'm thinking of VolksUSA's OLD site, back when the whole thing was white and nothing was cross-referenced. That system apparently DID take your payment information for lotteries, but International back then didn't. . . . for some reason.

I'm glad they did this, honestly. It won't 100% cut down on scalpers, but it'll help, and it'll definitely cut down on the average person entering multiple times. This is a GOOD thing, if a bit inconvenient this time because some people won't be able to scrounge up funds in time.

I feel kinda bad that this improves the odds for me. It sucks for those who used the time to save up, but if this is how they're going to do lotteries from now on, at least now we know so that those who do can adjust their savings strategies. It would have been smarter for Volks to release this info further ahead of time, though.

 

I've always been in the boat of "if I don't have the money, I don't enter the lottery" myself, funds just worked out for me this time. Husband remembers how crushed I was when I lost Asuna back during her initial release, so we shuffled funds.

Remember, it only increases your chances if they are having the same amount of winners as always. I'm very curious to see what the winrate is like but it's also very likely that they will produce less dolls for a lot less entries.

  Torino said:

Remember, it only increases your chances if they are having the same amount of winners as always. I'm very curious to see what the winrate is like but it's also very likely that they will produce less dolls for a lot less entries.

That is not likely at all. They have no reason to cut production when they already don't make enough to satisfy demand. Don't mistake their use of lottery as meaning their goal is to ensure not everyone gets to purchase. (probably... Japanese companies can be odd)

 

My impression is their production rate is rather inflexible.

 

Also, it's been suggested that they're making this change because of Rin and Len. Well... maybe it's because I'm relatively new... But from my point of view, they didn't make too many Rins and Lens, they made just the right amount. Rin was available for about 6 months after release. Given their production schedule that is pretty perfect. Volks loses a lot of potential revenue by never making enough dolls of their collaboration models.

Unpopular opinion, but i dont see this as cutting down on scalpers.

 

Sure they have to put their money upfront but as a few of us have said, we dont have the money to do the same, so we dont enter, which means a better win rate for those who do, so scalpers might see it as an opportunity to add more $$ to the aftermarket prices....so putting down the money now isnt a huge setback..... in my opinion.

 

 

And honestly, even if i had the money, i dont feel like having that money on hold for the time frame of the lottery.... bills do come up, and overdrawn bank fees can be a real b*tch

well, considering this time the new style of rules without much pre-warning puts people on the spot. however the prices were known for quite some time, so for future releases the preparation time shouldn't be as harsh.

 

But overall its more or less the best deterrent for multiple entry-farmers, if they enforce a one credit-card per entry rule -- Though this can be bypassed with virtual CC-outlets, however most of these are not done on the spot, and do even all of them work with Volks.

 

For those flipping the dolls as a business practice this could be a bother, but considering all entries will need to have the full ammount backed up, it could .. maybe .. possibly, limit entries in this department, at least for those parties that are not on the biggest bankrolls.

 

It changes the nature of things a bit, but I think it really makes you think more hard about do you really want a certain doll or not.

Maybe its just me, but aren't you confusing something?

 

You don't really pay the item until you win it.

 

-----------------------------------

From Volks:

*Once the winners have been selected, payment will be settled via credit card or PayPal.

Orders will be cancelled and, consequently, payment will be also cancelled in case of loss.

*If you use a pre-paid card or a debit card with credit function, money may be temporarily deduced from your account as you complete your entry.

Money will be reimbursed in a few days in case of cancellation.

Inquire the card issuer regarding the reimbursement time.

-----------------------------------

 

I preordered a collectors edition (game) from a store on a website once and they did the same. I had to enter my Paypal information and they "reserved" the payment. But I didn't have to pay right away. The money was taken when they received the item a few weeks later.

 

I think Volks is doing the same thing. Can't hurt to ask them, but at least with Paypal I'm pretty sure your not actually pay them until you get the winning notice.

 

[Edit]: I messaged Volks about it. I will tell you what they said when I get a reply.

Edited April 15, 2017 by Guest

  shikaree said:

  Torino said:

Remember, it only increases your chances if they are having the same amount of winners as always. I'm very curious to see what the winrate is like but it's also very likely that they will produce less dolls for a lot less entries.

That is not likely at all. They have no reason to cut production when they already don't make enough to satisfy demand. Don't mistake their use of lottery as meaning their goal is to ensure not everyone gets to purchase. (probably... Japanese companies can be odd)

 

My impression is their production rate is rather inflexible.

 

Also, it's been suggested that they're making this change because of Rin and Len. Well... maybe it's because I'm relatively new... But from my point of view, they didn't make too many Rins and Lens, they made just the right amount. Rin was available for about 6 months after release. Given their production schedule that is pretty perfect. Volks loses a lot of potential revenue by never making enough dolls of their collaboration models.

I respectfully disagree, they did make too many Rins/Lens for this usual business model and I have the reasonable assumption that it's the entire reason why they're changing the lottery system. There wasn't meant to be that many left over, people were meant to pay for the ones they won. Rin wasn't meant to be still available six months after her release. To clarify, the Rins arent there just because they made too much, they're there because an abnormally high number of people flaked on their lottery wins, and my money is on most of these flakers being scalpers who were riding on the fact that they could sell Rin and Len for a profit, and then flaked when they released they didn't end up as rare as they were banking on (ie the win-rate was super high). It's still an assumption, sure, but I think its the most likely reason.

 

They don't 'lose money' by making things super exclusive because that's always been how hobby companies operate, not just Volks. You could easily argue that the opposite is true - its purely psychological, if you showed me two dolls and told me one was limited and one was easy to get, and I could only get one right now, I'd go for the limited one. Hell there's unlimited dolls from BJD companies I said I was gonna get this year, dolls that I yearn for with every fibre of my being, that I wont anymore because I have to prioritize limiteds - I put off on purchasing what I can get any time and in the end who even knows if I will, because these limiteds keep coming out and I know if I dont get those when I can I'll likely have to pay a ridiculous markup later. I've seen a lot of people say they want a smartdoll but get a limited DD instead because they can get the smartdoll ''any time''. Making something exclusive guarantees you're going to sell all of it.

 

The thing is, no one actually knows how many dolls they make for a lottery but people DO know that that number -is- flexible. Rin/Len had an extraordinarily high win-rate. Hardly anyone who entered for them on this forum alone lost. Meanwhile, other dolls like Prisma Illya and Arle had incredibly low win-rates and I think only one or two people here won those of everyone who entered. Rin Tohsaka was kinda in the middle. It could be coincidence, sure, but I think there's almost certainly a difference in the quantities of dolls made for each lottery, and this is most likely tied to the number of people that enter and the popularity of the dols. It makes perfect sense to me that a lower entry pool will have less dolls made for it, and that dolls produced is proportional to how many people enter. Given how popular SAO is that could even out, though. But I can speculate about this all day - I'm not gonna know until I see the eventual win-rate thread for these dolls. (and even then that only covers this forum)

Are you saying allowing everyone to buy a Rin without paying high after-market prices is bad? Having her available for 6 months after release also means Volks is constantly selling a collaboration model doll for that entire period. If she wasn't available, then Volks would be selling no collaboration dolls for most of that period. I think one scenario is clearly better for both buyers and Volks.

 

When after-market prices double, the original manufacturer lost potential revenue. That is absolutely for certain. I assume that after a couple decades in business, and being in Japan, Volks can judge demand for specific characters pretty well. The only reason why they would allow certain dolls to be so expensive in the after-market is because they simply cannot make enough within their release schedule to satisfy demand. That is why I said their production is inflexible - they make a certain amount for each release, demand be damned.

 

This is also why you see win-rate fluctuate all over the place. It's not because they can adjust production, it's because they can't adjust production. Besides, I don't think one month is enough to tailor the production to demand, as is for Kirito and Asuna. For most lottery dolls, they don't have enough lead time to adjust production. You'll notice pre-orders happen much further in advance.

 

If they could adjust production based on lottery, then they would simply make one for everyone who wanted to buy one. There is absolutely no reason to do otherwise.

 

  Torino said:

I respectfully disagree, they did make too many Rins/Lens for this usual business model and I have the reasonable assumption that it's the entire reason why they're changing the lottery system. There wasn't meant to be that many left over, people were meant to pay for the ones they won. Rin wasn't meant to be still available six months after her release. To clarify, the Rins arent there just because they made too much, they're there because an abnormally high number of people flaked on their lottery wins, and my money is on most of these flakers being scalpers who were riding on the fact that they could sell Rin and Len for a profit, and then flaked when they released they didn't end up as rare as they were banking on (ie the win-rate was super high). It's still an assumption, sure, but I think its the most likely reason.

 

They don't 'lose money' by making things super exclusive because that's always been how hobby companies operate, not just Volks. You could easily argue that the opposite is true - its purely psychological, if you showed me two dolls and told me one was limited and one was easy to get, and I could only get one right now, I'd go for the limited one. Hell there's unlimited dolls from BJD companies I said I was gonna get this year, dolls that I yearn for with every fibre of my being, that I wont anymore because I have to prioritize limiteds - I put off on purchasing what I can get any time and in the end who even knows if I will, because these limiteds keep coming out and I know if I dont get those when I can I'll likely have to pay a ridiculous markup later. I've seen a lot of people say they want a smartdoll but get a limited DD instead because they can get the smartdoll ''any time''. Making something exclusive guarantees you're going to sell all of it.

 

The thing is, no one actually knows how many dolls they make for a lottery but people DO know that that number -is- flexible. Rin/Len had an extraordinarily high win-rate. Hardly anyone who entered for them on this forum alone lost. Meanwhile, other dolls like Prisma Illya and Arle had incredibly low win-rates and I think only one or two people here won those of everyone who entered. Rin Tohsaka was kinda in the middle. It could be coincidence, sure, but I think there's almost certainly a difference in the quantities of dolls made for each lottery, and this is most likely tied to the number of people that enter and the popularity of the dols. It makes perfect sense to me that a lower entry pool will have less dolls made for it, and that dolls produced is proportional to how many people enter. Given how popular SAO is that could even out, though. But I can speculate about this all day - I'm not gonna know until I see the eventual win-rate thread for these dolls. (and even then that only covers this forum)

I gotta admit I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here? I never said it was bad that lots of people got Rin (and Len). I said that's not how hobby companies in Japan tend to operate.(and potentially elsewhere but I'm less familiar with those) They're getting revenue because they're always bringing out new dolls. It's the same with pretty much any figure company that exists. If they want to increase revenue for a certain doll, they give it a rerelease. One could even argue Rin/Len has -lost- them revenue due to how many have gone unsold, but that's also speculation and we can't have any way of knowing that. But a limited product is usually thought of as a success when its sold out, and the fact that Rin and Len are still floating around in the warehouse makes me kinda anxious.

 

I also dont really know why you think they cant adjust production when Rin/Len was more than enough evidence that a higher than usual number was produced (and thats not even counting the preorder Rins and Lens produced beforehand). They also don't have any control over the second-hand market, so they don't ''allow'' anything. They actually discourage scalper prices as best they can. But it's completely outside their control what scalpers do and they can't do a lot to discourage it other than putting limits such as one doll per person and now this new weird pre-payment. It honestly just seems like way much of a coincidence to me that one lottery will have very few winners and the dolls sell for over a thousand in the secondhand market, and another lottery will have a ton of winners and dolls sold relatively close to RRP in the secondhand market. The only logical explanation for that is that some dolls just had less produced. It's true however that the number they make could be based on their own guesses of how many people will enter and not the actual number of people who do.

 

  Quote

If they could adjust production based on lottery, then they would simply make one for everyone who wanted to buy one.

That's not what I meant. I meant that I am speculating that there is a base quota that they add to if they get more entries than expected. Maybe there are other factors too. There were still people that lost the Rin/Len lottery after all, even though I can count the people on this forum who did on one hand. I am speculating (keyword speculate) that they produced an abundance because a ton of people entered and they wanted at least 70% of the people to win instead of 20% or whatever it might have been had the amount of dolls been the same as Arle for example. If the amount of dolls was the same for every lottery then a very low percentage of people would have won Rin/Len simply because way, way more people entered for them than for Arle. (And if Arle had the same number of dolls made as Rin/Len with the same win-rate, it would also mean that way more people who entered for Arle would have won because I am assuming less people entered for her, but judging from this forum and J-twitter her win-rate was quite low amongst those that entered. That seems to be the thing for MDDs :c) My point is that those leftover Rins/Lens - even though they're great news for people who didn't win them - weren't meant to happen, and they only did because of how many people flaked. You rarely see other unclaimed lottery dolls for sale like that, let alone for that long. (I wish though, then I'd actually be able to get Arle without selling my arm or something ;_;)

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to say it'll be a -good- thing if they make less dolls than usual if less people enter than usual and I hope I'm wrong. I'm just saying it makes sense considering past lotteries and I wouldn't be surprised - especially because this whole thing really seems like it was made to make sure only people who intend to pay will enter instead of all the flakers who didnt pay for Rin/Len. I'm not saying they'll be harder to win, I'm saying the win-rate is probably going to be the same as what they would have been whether they had this new prepayment or not. If I turn out to be completely wrong and every single person here who enters wins Asuna or Kirito, I'll be glad and it'll definitely take the sting out of this ''payment loan'' thing.

 

edit: Just in case your objections are due to you believing that this method of doing things doesn't make sense then um...welcome to Volks!