A "Cinderella" in the Making [Mika Jougasaki]

Y'all are forgetting something tho.  The new girl isn't a FULL Cortex.  She still has the vinyl head and bust so that's why she costs more.  The vinyl heads are where all the money is at, Danny has mentioned that many times before. Also, she's a licensed character so she was going to be more expensive than a regular SmD anyway.

 

The full Cortex dolls are going to be cheaper for sure since they don't use any vinyl parts at all.  That's what Danny was saying way back when all the talk about Cortex first started.  And it seems to show in his platform of which Cortex dolls will come out first.... most expensive ones first followed by a slowly declining price range all the way down to the basic build it yourself kits.

 

 

Billy

6 hours ago, hats said:

Well that price is a bummer. After all that hype about Cortex being cheaper (wasn't expecting half price) she's going to cost the same as any of the other licensed dolls did in the past. Those seams on her legs make her a big no for me, especially at same price point as a licensed vinyl doll.

Just to clarify, I didn't mean you or anyone here really,  but on Danny's instagram I used to see a lot of posts from people thinking they were going to get a doll for $100-300 which just wasn't happening.

I agree with you and the other posts here. Cortex' advantages are on the manufacturer's side, not the consumer's, so if it's not cheaper to an extent it's even noticable, then it's a bad deal for customers. I'm aware it doesn't stain as easily, but I don't know of anything else that's an advantage from the user's end. The seams aren't attractive, and as can be seen in some of the user pictures, they don't always stay closed where they look like the promo pictures so there can be gaps with posing.

1 hour ago, baldylox said:

Y'all are forgetting something tho.  The new girl isn't a FULL Cortex.  She still has the vinyl head and bust so that's why she costs more.  The vinyl heads are where all the money is at, Danny has mentioned that many times before. Also, she's a licensed character so she was going to be more expensive than a regular SmD anyway.

How do we know this? The only info I have is that Mika wasn't to be Cortex at all.

I don't read Smartdoll social media anymore so if it's been stated I don't know that. Still, is this any cheaper than the other licensed dolls at all? It's not any cheaper than his standard models for sure and it's not cheaper than a licensed DD.

I recall the same bit about Mika being Vinyl, because that was what the license called for. Danny must have convinced them to let him change her to cortex in part or in full. He might still have been locked into the price of a vinyl doll though.

I would say seam lines on top of the joint gaps is a huge downside, but we need to see owner photos.

Mika is probably a better choice for a cortex launch from a business standpoint. She has more media associated with her, and better recognition imo.

I'm not the best person to talk about Smart Doll and I've said that before (and probably will again). I have a lot of bones to pick with Danny and SMD in general. However, Mika is my absolute favorite girl besides Miku in the anime world so I feel obligated to talk about her. I've been debating whether or not to comment on this in general but I feel like I am allowed to have an opinion even if it's bad too 😕 I don't mean to upset anyone or start anything at all. I know my wording is harsh sometimes, but I don't mean to sound like a jerk.

 

I am very unhappy about her being Cortex as a) the seam lines are very very ugly and b) I just generally hate the idea of Cortex. I'm still considering buying her, but I'm like... more than certain Volks is going to eventually make a Mika and I'd rather get that one. I don't think she was supposed to be Cortex either. Which turned a "probably" from me into a "definitely not" buying. And that price... for those seam lines... no thanks. 

 

My biggest beef with Smart Doll is their same-face. All of them look the same with little variation and Mika doesn't look like Mika very much. She's kind of ugly to be blunt and I can't put my finger on what exactly it is, and I don't mean that to be inflammatory. She just looks "off" and most of the licensed SMD look this way. Where are her buttons? Where are her rings? Why are the licensed SMD always so uneventful when Danny's normal line clothes are so amazing and immaculate? Why is her armband and scrunchie attached? Where are her nails? Why is her wig that doll ponytail cheat where it's not actually pulled up into the tail? Where are the things that make her Mika? I don't get it. Why does she feel incomplete and lazy from a guy who makes mostly everything else he releases perfection? 

 

Sorry again I'm just... all sorts of upset about everything. I didn't expect to be super excited anyway, but I adore Mika with my heart and soul. And I feel pretty bummed out and confused. 

Edited April 18, 2019 by littlebirdzoom

3 hours ago, cfx said:

How do we know this? The only info I have is that Mika wasn't to be Cortex at all.

 

 

Here is the info about Mika being a hybrid in case you and others were looking for it. (Taken from the 'Coming Soon' page for Mika here.)

Quote

Mika is the first ever licensed “Cortex Hybrid” Smart Doll. This means that her head and hands are made of vinyl and the body is made of what we call Cortex (Asaflex material). The Cortex body is compatible with existing vinyl parts such as busts, hands and feet (sold separately) while the vinyl head is compatible with existing soft vinyl Smart Doll bodies, wigs, glasses and elf ears (also sold separately).

 

Edited April 18, 2019 by Zaliayn

43 minutes ago, littlebirdzoom said:

My biggest beef with Smart Doll is their same-face. All of them look the same with little variation and Mika doesn't look like Mika very much. She's kind of ugly to be blunt and I can't put my finger on what exactly it is, and I don't mean that to be inflammatory. She just looks "off" and most of the licensed SMD look this way. Where are her buttons? Where are her rings? Why are the licensed SMD always so uneventful when Danny's normal line clothes are so amazing and immaculate? Why is her armband and scrunchie attached? Where are her nails? Why is her wig that doll ponytail cheat where it's not actually pulled up into the tail? Where are the things that make her Mika? I don't get it. Why does she feel incomplete and lazy from a guy who makes mostly everything else he releases perfection?

Here is someones custom Mika.

 

Imo this is much closer to her look. I want to make one with this head, but I plan to give the face-up artist a selection of cards that match the look I want her to have. I don't want to exactly copy someone else's custom, because that just seems like theft. The sculpt with mods is perfect though.

As far as CG goes Mika is pretty close to Kaede in terms of how much I like the character. Kind of a Fure fan too.

I took a look at the history of licensed character SmD releases. These of course were all released with vinyl bodies.

Gourai: 69000 yen

Nami : 67000

Lelouch: 67000

Miho: 65000

Yukari: 65000

I got the prices from selecting the relevant licensed SmD from here: https://myfigurecollection.net/browse.v4.php?keywords=smart+doll

Mika with the cortex body will be priced at 67000 yen. This means a cortex body has absolutely no pricing advantage to the customer based on previous licensed doll releases.

I'm ignoring issues such as inflation rate and changing costs of production in the last 2~3 years. Unless there's hyperinflation, inflation is invisible to the consumer when you're looking at only 2~3 years. We also have no way of looking through the books of Mirai, Inc. to understand the changing cost structures. Company cost structures are invisible to the customer anyway and the customer generally doesn't care.

From the perspective of the customer, after all the hype concerning how cortex will be less expensive than vinyl, there was some expectation of dolls being released at a lower price. As @cfx pointed out, cortex doesn't reduce the cost of wigs and outfits but a realistic expectation would have been slightly less expensive bodies. What Mika's pending release shows is there is no price difference to the customer between cortex and vinyl. Who created the hype and lower price expectations? Danny, with his social media posts. He could have tapered down pricing expectations. He didn't. It was a social media post so of course not; hype is the whole point.

Had Mika been priced at 62000 yen, then we'd actually see how significant going with cortex could be to the customer. What we're seeing instead is, if Danny is to be taken at his word in terms of cortex being less expensive to produce, the cortex costs Danny less money. The cortex costs the same as vinyl to the customer.

If vinyl and cortex are the same price, I would personally pick vinyl. If you're interested in buying SmD Mika, sadly, you don't get that option.

15 hours ago, cfx said:

Just to clarify, I didn't mean you or anyone here really,  but on Danny's instagram I used to see a lot of posts from people thinking they were going to get a doll for $100-300 which just wasn't happening.

I agree with you and the other posts here. Cortex' advantages are on the manufacturer's side, not the consumer's, so if it's not cheaper to an extent it's even noticable, then it's a bad deal for customers. I'm aware it doesn't stain as easily, but I don't know of anything else that's an advantage from the user's end. The seams aren't attractive, and as can be seen in some of the user pictures, they don't always stay closed where they look like the promo pictures so there can be gaps with posing.

No worries. I know it wasn’t directed at me. I was just stating that my expectation for the cost difference wasn’t as drastic as half price.

But for the price point to be the same as a fully vinyl licensed doll - there’s no benefit for me as a consumer. Those seam lines are a hard no for me. If she had default clothing that covered her legs it’d be an easier (somewhat) sell for me. The whole seams popping when posing turns me off from cortex as well. 

I’m really bummed as she’s a favorite of mine that I’d love to have. I’ll either have to go with creating a custom or wait and hope that Volks will eventually make her as well. 

I decided to do a bit of a thought experiment. Danny mentioned the cost of the cortex mold was 3 office buildings in Ginza.

I did a quick search on how much *ONE* building in Ginza would cost. I ran into a bit of a snag. Office space is mostly listed either in cost per square meter or an entire floor of a much larger building. I couldn't easily get a price on what land + small building in Ginza would cost. Since this was just a simple thought experiment and I have no intention of following up on true costs of land + small building in Ginza, I used the price here:

http://japanpropertycentral.com/tag/ginza/

The price? 25 billion yen. I realize this is only for the real estate of one floor of a building and not a stand alone building + land. I'm not going to get the perfect model here so this will be the figure I will use for my estimation. At this price, 3 buildings in Ginza would cost 75 billion yen. 75 billion yen will be the number I will use to say that's what it cost Danny to produce the cortex molds.

Without getting into complicated accounting rules, I'll try to keep things as simple as possible. Spending that kind of money is a huge investment and small businesses don't have that kind of cash on hand. That means the molds were paid for with a loan from a bank or financing from investors. Either way, there are creditors behind the cortex mold investment. I'm now going to assume the loan/investment must be paid back in 5 years.

Another assumption I'm making is, this loan/investment is not free. I'm going to tack on 5% interest, compounded annually for 5 years. I used the tool at this link:

https://www.investor.gov/additional-resources/free-financial-planning-tools/compound-interest-calculator

(Due to number limits of the calculator, I used 75 million as the figure and added 3 zeroes after getting the result.) The figure I got from the online compound interest calculator is 95,721,117,190 - but I'll use yen (and not USD like the link does). This is the total amount Danny will owe for investing into the cortex molds. Divide this by 5 years.

95,721,117,190 yen / 5 years = 19,144,223,438 yen/year. This is the amount Danny needs to pay back every year for 5 years to his creditors for the molds.

I'm going to ignore the cortex body selling price because I don't know what it is and I don't need to know the exact figure. However, I'll make the assumption the profit per cortex body sold before taking into account the cost of the molds is 20,000 yen. Let's see how many cortex bodies must be sold per year for Danny to pay back his creditors.

19,144,223,438 yen per year / 20000 yen per body = 957211.1719 bodies per year. Let's just say 957,212 bodies.

With vinyl, Danny sells 1,000 dolls per month.

https://info.smartdoll.jp/en/posts/smart-doll-cortex

That means he sells 12,000 vinyl dolls per year.

With cortex, assuming a 20,000 yen per body profit, he needs to sell 80x the quantity of what he currently sells per year for 5 years JUST TO PAY OFF HIS CREDITORS?!? That's insane.

If one office building in Ginza costs 12.5 billion yen, Danny would need to sell 40x in cortex what he currently does with vinyl just to pay off his creditors.

If one office building in Ginza costs 6.25 billion yen, Danny would need to sell 20x in cortex what he currently does with vinyl just to pay off his creditors.

If one office building in Ginza costs 3.125 billion yen, Danny would need to sell 10x in cortex what he currently does with vinyl just to pay off his creditors. EVEN THIS IS INSANE. This is also assuming the margin on a cortex body is as high as 20,000 yen.

A few people in this thread have expressed their frustrations concerning Mika's cortex body and asking price. Based on the information available, the cortex body is a far inferior product from the customer's perspective. The non-staining advantage cannot overcome the seam lines disadvantage. Potential customers were also set up to believe cortex bodies will offer them a minor discount. Instead, potential customers were presented with a crappier product at the same price as previously released licensed dolls. This is why the sentiment for SmD Mika is: it's a rip-off.

 

I'm missing too much information to definitively conclude what I said above is correct. However, I'm probably not too far off with at least a few of the things I mentioned. If I'm right or very close with any of my above speculation, that would explain why SmD Mika isn't less expensive than previously released licensed SmDs with vinyl bodies. In order to break even/pay off his creditors, Danny can't afford to lower the price.

Mika as a character should be a good draw, and if she fails to sell well then I think that tells us the future of both cortex and possibly Danny's iM@S license.

 

75 million for the molds & development seems high to me, even though prototypes of anything can be very expensive. He did say three buildings not three office buildings, and this still assumes he's not talking out his ass. 

I do think recouping costs is a totally legit reason Mika isn't lower in price than other SmD.

Edited April 20, 2019 by BeyondTime

28 minutes ago, BeyondTime said:

75 million for the molds & development seems high to me,

BILLION. With a "B". In yen. At the current exchange rate, about 670 million USD. Yes, this is unrealistic and that brings up what you mentioned below.

32 minutes ago, BeyondTime said:

and this still assumes he's not talking out his ass.

I believe he was indeed channelling his inner Ace Ventura and spoke out from his derriere.

I know the numbers I have are way off but he did say 3 buildings in Ginza. Danny made it a point to say Ginza to express how expensive the molds were. Even if the molds aren't anywhere as expensive as he claimed they were, I think my speculation about why he's unable to drop the price of cortex below that of vinyl still has merit.

9 hours ago, growcian said:

BILLION. With a "B". In yen. At the current exchange rate, about 670 million USD. Yes, this is unrealistic and that brings up what you mentioned below.

 

I actually misread the bit about the calculator and the three zeros, that's where I got 75 million.

We've had a number of construction projects where I work; which is in the SFO bay with high real estate costs, high construction costs, and it's an earthquake zone with really strict code for public buildings. The cost for the buildings ranged from three million for the smallest all the way up to 140 million for the largest. The largest has classrooms / labs for several thousand students along with faculty offices for several hundred people. None of that includes land, which is already ours, but say you add land to the cost of the smallest building and it probably adds a million and a half for about 1/16 of an acre of land.

I mention all that just to say a "building" can really mean wildly different things from a small shop to a high-rise. If all Ginza has is high rises then he's got to be full of $@!#, but if  it's got some older small industrial buildings then it might equate to his investment.

The more I thought about this though, the more it occurs to me that he is taking a huge gamble with cortex. If he did finance several million dollars to pay for the cost of development, and this flops, it could seriously harm his business. If cortex seems sub par I would think he could have issues with future licensing deals since businesses might not want their IP associated with his cortex based products.

I would hope that doesn't happen because imo a bit of competition is good for any industry, and Danny's innovations force Volks to innovate.

 

Edit: For example I would expect that if Danny's Mika does well, then if and when Volks makes a Mika she would need to be exceed the standard set by Danny's or invite negative comparisons. Conversely if cortex Mika does poorly, then Volks doesn't really have to try very hard if/when they make the character.

Edited April 20, 2019 by BeyondTime

I've been talking to a wig maker on etsy about a custom Mika wig, and I went digging around for some example images. The more I look at the character art the more I am just not feeling this as Mika.

 

I think her eyes are too narrow, although some of the card art does have that look. I think these images have more of that Mika feel, or at least that's how I envision the character.

 

 

As a side note, with the 8th Cinderella Girl election going on I am kind of amazed that Mika has never placed higher. She places high in the passion ranking, but she's never made top 10 in the finals. She's such a cute  & likable character too.

Edited April 23, 2019 by BeyondTime

The eyes aren't large enough and they're way too far apart.

With the possible exception of Nami, all Smart Doll sculpts are really similar in many aspects, and this is no different. As such she comes across more like a Mika cosplayer than actual Mika but at least not to the extent that Miho was like that.

I don't like the Smart Doll face sculpts in general though, so I don't know if I'm being fair here and I'm probably repeating myself. Still, I think it's hard to really feel that represents her well, no matter what. Volks misses sometimes too and I gripe about that as well, or at least they often don't capture the characteristics of the doll that I think are important i.e. I still don't think they did a good job with Kaede for instance.

Edited April 23, 2019 by cfx
Mika, Miki, whatever lol

12 minutes ago, cfx said:

The eyes aren't large enough and they're way too far apart.

Yeah the DDH09 is just a much better fit. I think the jawline is better on the 09 too.

 

12 minutes ago, cfx said:

I still don't think they did a good job with Kaede for instance.

I think the gripe I have with Kaede is they went with the game look, and that gives her a younger appearance. A more mature Kaede would have been a beautiful sculpt, but to be fair I don't necessarily know how well they could have realized that look in a doll. It's easy to be an armchair sculptor so to speak. Their Kaede does look like Kaede though, just not the Kaede we imagined from the original tease.

 

One thing that I think is kind of hard with the iM@S characters is the three dimensional nature of their eyelashes. You aren't going to get that with a vinyl doll. It's so much a part of the character look, and it really places a lot of emphasis on the eyes.

You can see it in the Kaede tease too.

 

Edited April 23, 2019 by BeyondTime

That's the odd thing; in my view the particular eyelash and eyeliner style is one of the main definining features of each iM@S girl because they're all fairly unique in that respect. Volks has gotten that mostly right accounting for changes that make sense on dolls (like toning down Takane's single "wingtip" a bit and giving her more eyelashes) and they did it right on Anastasia who has heavier makeup than most Volks DDs, but I don't think they got that right on Kaede at all.

And I'll give Smart Doll Mika props for that; the eye makeup looks right, it's just the eye shape and size that don't.

The sides don’t flare enough on Kaede’s, but in this case though I mean the way the eyelashes are drawn over the hair as opposed to under it. There are other elements that don’t really translate to a doll like the translucent hair over the eyebrows or the almost nonexistent nose. 

Honestly with Danny’s Mika I think eyelashes look too mechanically precise, and the positioning of the individual lashes is wrong. I think the custom I posted above does it better. I might want the tips at the corner to flare a bit more, but it might just end up looking too heavy if they did. 

I really want to make an 09 Mika now, and work with a face up artist to get the face up the way it should be. Just need a darned wig XD. 

I talk a lot about Alphond Tan's Kaede but he got her look so right:

Neris' sculpt turns out to work well for Kaede too.

I hadn't thought of that, but that is true that Smartdoll Mika's eye makeup looks too perfect and symmetrical, which is a bit funny considering how much Danny talks about imperfections and asymmetry.

A friend ask me about mika and I just realized Here when you guys said, that's she's gonna be cortex or just use plastic body and vinyl heads

It's explained on her page on the Smartdoll site:

https://shop.smartdoll.jp/collections/soon/products/smart-doll-mika-jougasaki

Her head and hands are vinyl, the rest is Cortex.

I want to emphasize that, because Billy's post at the top of this page says the bust is vinyl, and the store page doesn't state that; at least not now; it could have been changed.

8 hours ago, cfx said:

I talk a lot about Alphond Tan's Kaede but he got her look so right:

I would like to see that face-up on the Volks Kaede.

I would however expect Kaede to drink 25 year old Scotch. She is the top idol after all.

It looks like my Mika wig may happen, so I am going to need to pick someone to do the face & head mods.

Edited April 23, 2019 by BeyondTime

Blog article with various pictures of Mika and details of Cortex: http://blog.livedoor.jp/teaoevo/archives/1906018.html

The bust is definitely not vinyl.

Edited June 27, 2019 by cfx
link fixed...

18 hours ago, cfx said:

Blog article with various pictures of Mika and details of Cortex: http://blog.livedoor.jp/teaoevo/archives/1906018.html

The bust is definitely not vinyl.

Looking at the blog photos, I don't have complaints with SmD Mika's head sculpt, faceup, wig, and clothing. If she were available (I haven't checked but I assume she's gone), I would be tempted to buy. I wouldn't even if I could. I find the issues below plus her creator's questionable behavior to be too much to stomach.

I do have complaints about SmD Mika's body being almost entirely Cortex and the seam lines. I don't find the swapping of vinyl with cortex to be a fair trade-off. Mika being generally priced the same as previously released licensed dolls means I would be paying the same amount of money for a doll made with what I consider to be inferior materials.

So, there is the second Cinderella prototype 

 

Makeup is well done but I'm not sure about the lips