The Lottery Win-rate Thread!!! (Stats updated! 18-1-13)

NOTE: W/L means Wins versus Losses; so a W/L of 4/6 would be 4 wins, 6 losses. A total of 10 entries, which means a winrate of 40%.

 

Statistics accurate up until post 35.

 

Some numbers!

Total wins = 74

Total losses = 74

Highest Scorers: misheru(56), Alphakitty(53), Klein(15)

 

Estimated money sent to Volks: 4,810,000YEN (53,539USD)

 

Your score is calculated according to (wins^1.3 x 5 x winrate^3). So someone with a high number of wins and only a few losses, will beat someone that only has a few wins. e.g. Alphakitty has a high number of wins but a winrate of 89%. JoltFiend has winrate of 100% but only won two dolls. Alphakitty would get a higher score despite not having a 100% winrate because many more dolls were won. People that have a low win-rate but won a fair number of dolls will be beaten by people like JoltFiend, but JoltFiend's score will drop massively if he loses on his next doll!

 

Hi,

 

So after doing some investigation in response to an interesting comment made by SakuraSylph, I thought maybe it'd be cool to have a lottery winrate thread

 

One post per person please!

 

First list your alias and your country.

Then list the dolls you entered for, followed by where you entered for them (VolksUSA, VolksInt, etc.), and whether you won or not!

 

Report the win-rate!

 

If you entered multiple times for the same doll, report that in the win-rate! (e.g. if you entered 3 times for a Cirno and won her once, your win rate would be 33%).

 

 

So I'll start!

 

marisa_doll (Scotland)

W/L = 2/0 (100%)

• Cirno (Touhou) - Volks International - WON
  
• Melty (Shining Hearts) - Volks International - WON

 

Here is some helpful formatting:

[b][u][size=150]your_name (your_country)[/size][/u][/b]
[b]W/L = 0/0 (0%)[/b]
[list][*]Doll_1 - [i]Some_lotto[/i]- [color=#40BF00]WON[/color]
[*]Doll_2 - [i]Some_lotto[/i]- [color=#BF0000]LOST[/color][/list]

Edited January 18, 2013 by Guest

I guess I'll follow up . I only entered once and I won ^_^

 

AdeptZero (Canada)

W/L = 2/5 (40%) list start.

• Sakuya (Shining Blade) - Volks USA- WON
  
• Erica Fontaine - Volks USA- WON
  
• Miki Hoshii - Volks International- LOST
  
• Sasara 2nd Version - Volks International- LOST
  
• Kirika Towa Alma - Volks International- LOST

Edited August 25, 2015 by Guest

Oh, how fun!

 

Alphakitty (USA)

W/L= 8/1 89%

• Noumi (Little Busters) - Volks USA LOST
  
• Aerie/Airy (Shining Hearts) - Volks USA (Kerbey Lane) WON
  
• Akira - Volks USA (Kerbey Lane) WON
  
• Mariko-sensei - Volks USA (Kerbey Lane) WON
  
• Lucy (ToHeart 2) - Volks USA (Kerbey Lane) WON
  
• Haruka (PhotoKanon) - Volks USA (Kerbey Lane) WON
  
• Rise (Persona 4) - Volks USA (Kerbey Lane) WON
  
• Melty x 2 (Shining Hearts) Volks USA (Kerbey Lane) WON

 

All of them but Melty I had 1 entry in (and I won Melty twice).

Updated with newest results:

 

Strife212 (UK)

W/L 2/0 100%

 

• Aozaki Aoko (Witch on the Holy Night) International : WON
  Kuonji Alice (Witch on the Holy Night) International : WON

Edited May 22, 2013 by Guest

I entered one time for Melty and won her for my sweetheart Coffee.

 

Migon (Sweden)

W/L = 1/0 (100%)

• Melty (Shining Hearts) - Volks International- WON

Uriko (Spain)

W/L = 2/0 (100%)

• Sakura Matou - Volks Int- WON
  
• Neris - Volks int- WON

Jezrah(USA)

W/L = 2/0 (100%) list start.

• Akira - Volks USA- WON
• Melty- Volks USA- WON

kymaera (USA)

W/L = 5/14 (35.7%) list start.

• ALNA - Volks USA- WON
  
• Mari Illustrious Makinari - Kerbey Lane- WON
  
• Beatrice - Kerbey Lane- WON
  
• Miki Hoshino - Volks Intl- WON
  
• Saber Lily - Volks USA- LOST
  
• Rise - Volks USA- LOST
  
• Ranko - Volks Int- 2 LOSSES
  
• Alisa - Volks Int- 3 LOSSES
  
• Melty (v2) - Volks Init - WON/2 LOSSES

 

I may have entered for Rise through both KL and Volks USA or KL instead. I honestly don't remember and I don't keep the losing entry emails.

 

Also, don't know how you track this, but for the two I won from KL, I had an entry into Volks USA as well that got canceled when I won from KL.

Edited January 22, 2015 by Guest

Bethykins (United Kingdom)

 

W/L = 3/8 (37.5%) list start.

[*]Noumi - Entered with Volks international - LOST

• Lucy Misora - Entered with Volks international 3 times- WON all Three
  
• Aoko Aozaki - Entered with volks international 4 times- LOST all Four

Edited January 10, 2013 by Guest

Divinitaaria (United States)

W/L = 0/1 (0%)

• Rise Kujikawa (Persona 4) - Volks USA- LOST
  
  • Rise Kujikawa (Persona 4) - Kerbey Lane- LOST

 

This is only the beginning of my horrid luck that's sure to come

Edited January 14, 2013 by Guest

I'm rather curious myself.

Some seem to think we have a better chance in the USA but I have not experienced that myself.

 

Nekopon (USA)

W/L = 6/14 (30%) list start.

• Ms. Mariko - Volks USA- WON
  
• Rise Kujikawa - Volks USA- WON
  
• Lucy Maria Misora White Ver. - Volks USA- LOST
  
• Sakuya; Shining Blade - Volks INTL - LOST
  
• Cirno - Volks INTL- LOST
  
• Miki Hoshii - Volks INTL- WON
  
• Sakura Shinguji - Volks USA- WON
  
• Aoko - Volks INTL- LOST
  
• Aoko - Volks USA- LOST
  
• Melty - Volks INTL- LOST
  
• Melty - Volks USA- LOST
  
• Asuna - Volks INTL- WON
  
• Student Mariko - Volks USA- LOST
  
• Alna Magic White Ver. - Volks Intl- LOST
  
• Ranko Kanzaki - Volks Intl- LOST
  
• Makoto Kikuchi - Volks Intl- LOST
  
• Sasara Gothic White Ver. - Volks Intl- LOST
  
• Kirika - Volks Intl- LOST
  
• Rin Tohsaka - Volks USA- WON
  
• Kagamine Rin - Volks Intl- LOST

Edited September 29, 2016 by Guest

Avnia (Norway)

W/L = 3/0 (100%) list start.

• Haruka Niimi - Volks Intl- WON
  
• Haruka Amami - Volks Intl- WON
  
• DDS Mariko - Volks Intl- WON

 

 

Updating my win/lose rates: 16/07/2013

Edited July 16, 2013 by Guest

Nigoki (Australia)

W/L = 3/1 (75%) list start.

• Makinami Mari Illustrious - Volks International- WON
  
• Saber Lily - Volks International- LOST
  
• Moe 2nd Version - Volks International- WON
  
• Aozaki Aoko - Volks International- WON

 

Not sure it counts, but I lost on getting Aoko or Melty at Dolpa 28 as well.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Guest

JoltFiend (USA)

W/L = 2/0 (100%) list start.

• Neris Filliam - Volks USA- WON
  
• Haruka Niimi - Volks USA- WON

 

I know this thread's mainly for dolls, but I'd like to add a couple of the other lottery items I've entered for:

 

• Magical Aqua Set - Volks USA- WON
  
• Magical Ruby Set - Volks USA- WON
  
• Pre-painted 07 Head - Volks USA- WON

editing because I finally made a list Hope it helps in the tabulations.

updated 5/30/14 with Illya

 

 

Misheru (USA)

W/L = 13/4 (80%)

 

• Miu Amaha- Volks USA - WON
  
• WC Alna - Volks USA - WON
  
• Neris - Volks USA - WON
  
• Airy - Volks USA - WON
  
• Moe v2 - Volks INTL - WON
  
• Mariko - USA dealer - WON
  
• Akira - USA dealer- WON
  
• Lucy Misora - USA dealer - WON
  
• Haruka Niimi - USA dealer- WON
  
• Rise Kujikawa - USA dealer - WON
  
• Idolm@ster Haruka - Volks INTL - LOST
  
• Idolm@ster Miki - Volks INTL - LOST
  
• Melty - USA dealer - WON
  
• Aoko - USA dealer - LOST
  
• Nanami - USA dealer - WON

[*]Red Sakuya - USA dealer - LOST

[*]Prisma Illya- USA dealer - WON

 

 

 

(USA dealer is either KLD or WLD, but I never enter both at same time/same lottery)

Edited June 11, 2014 by Guest

Aquilla429 (UK)

W/L = 2/3 (40%)

• Sakuya Volks Int- WON
  
• Melty Volks Int- LOST
  
• Melty Volks Int- LOST
  
• Melty Volks Int- LOST
  
• Kirika Volks Int- WON

Edited August 22, 2015 by Guest

Ultimaknight (USA)

W/L = Classified

mitsuki (USA)

W/L = 11/43 (20.3%)

before 2011 W/L = 8/15 (34.8%)

2011 onward W/L = 3/28 (9.7%)

Volks USA W/L = 10/22 (31.3%)

Volks Int W/L = 1/21 (0.046%)

• Estel Freesia - Osaka 4 Volks Int- LOST
  
• Nagato Yuki - Dolpa 18 Volks Int- LOST
• Kuze Kiriha - Kyoto 5 Volks Int- LOST
• Original Saber - Dolpa 19 Volks Int- LOST
• Ayanami Rei French Maid ver - Osaka 5 Volks Int- LOST
• Tohsaka Rin - Dolpa 21 Volks USA- WON
• Sasara - Nagoya 4 Volks USA- WON
• Moe - DD Gathering Volks USA- WON
• Natsuki - DD Gathering Volks USA- LOST
• Mashiro - Dolpa 22 Volks USA- WON
• Sakura - Dolpa 23 Volks USA- WON
• Sakuno - Osaka 6 Volks USA- WON
• Miu - Osaka 6 Volks USA- WON
• Saber Lily - Dolpa 24 Volks USA- LOST
• White Christmas Alna - Dolpa 24 Volks USA- WON
• Beatrice - Kyoto 8 Volks USA- LOST
• Neris - Dolpa 25 Volks USA- LOST
• Akira - Kobe 1 Volks USA- LOST
• Akira - Kobe 1 Volks Int- LOST
• Millhi - Dolpa 26 Volks USA- WON
• Mariko - Dolpa 26 Volks USA- LOST
• Niimi Haruka - Kyoto 9 Volks USA- WON
• Lucy - Kyoto 9 Volks USA- LOST
• Lucy - Kyoto 9 Volks Int- LOST
• Sakuya/Maxima - Dolpa 27 Volks USA- LOST
• Sakuya/Maxima - Dolpa 27 Volks Int- LOST
• Rise - Dolpa 27 Volks USA- LOST
• Cirno - Dolpa 27 Volks USA- LOST
• Miki - Sendai 1 Volks Int- WON
• Aoko - Dolpa 28 Volks USA- LOST
• Aoko - Dolpa 28 Volks Int- LOST
• Melty - Dolpa 28 Volks USA- LOST
• Melty - Dolpa 28 Volks Int- LOST
• Alice - Dolpa 29 Volks Int- LOST
  
• Yukiho - Nagoya 5 Volks Int- LOST
• Chihaya - Nagoya 5 Volks Int- LOST
• Yaya - Dolpa 30 Volks Int- LOST
• Prism Ilya - Kyoto 10 Volks Int- LOST
• Shibuya Rin - Dolpa 31 Volks Int- LOST
• Ranko - Dolpa 31 Volks Int- LOST
• Alisa - Osaka 8 Volks Int- LOST
• Kikuchi Makoto - Osaka 8 Volks Int- LOST
• Sasara ~ White Gothic Version - Dolpa 23 Volks Int- LOST

Edited January 30, 2015 by Guest

Huh, just realized I have poor lotto luck, most of my gals came second hand...

(edit 11/29/15: more losses!)

(edit 09/28/16: entered my whole family for Takane and still lost! But finally won vocaloid twins)

 

jadepixel (USA)

W/L = 5/23 (17%)

• Neris - Volks USA- WON
  
• Rise - Volks USA- LOST
  
• Rise - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Melty - Volks USA- LOST
  
• Aoko - Volks USA- LOST
  
• Aoko - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Lucy Magical Princess - Volks Int- WON
  
• Mariko student - Volks Int- WON
  
• Mariko student - Volks USA- LOST
  
• Yukiho - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Chihaya - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Yaya - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Illya - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Ranko - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Alna v3 - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Makoto - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Sasara White Gothic - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Uzuki Shimamura - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Kirika - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Takane - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Takane - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Takane - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Takane - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Takane - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Arle - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Arle - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Kagamine Rin - Volks Int- WON
  
• Kagamine Len - Volks Int- WON

Edited September 29, 2016 by Guest

vhdangel (USA)

 

W/L = 5/3 (62.5%)

 

• Sakura - Dolpa 23 - Volks Int - WON
  
• Saber Lily - Dolpa 24 - Volks USA - LOST
  
• White Christmas Alna - Dolpa 24 - Volks USA - LOST
  
• Saber Lily - Dolpa 24 - Volks Int - WON
  
• White Christmas Alna - Dolpa 24 - Volks Int - WON
  
• Moe v2 - DD Festival - Volks Int - WON
  
• Haruka Niimi - Kyoto 9 - Volks Int - LOST
  
• Natsuki v2 - DD Festival 2012 - Volks Int - WON

Bellatrix

• (Italy)
  W/L = 0/2 (0%)
  
  • Rise Kujikawa - 5 entries in Volks USA- ALL LOST
    
  • Rise Kujikawa - 6 entries in Volks INT- ALL LOST
    
  • Aozaki Aoko - 5 entries in Volks USA- ALL LOST
    
  • Aozaki Aoko - 6 entries in Volks INT- ALL LOST

 

I think that no one can beat my bad luck in lotteries.

mistyaera (united states)

W/L = 1/2 (33.33%)

• Aoko Aozaki - Volks USA- WON
  
• Melty - Volks USA- LOST
  
• Melty - Volks INTL- LOST

Edited January 15, 2013 by Guest

Another interesting way that you could compile the statistics is to parse the W/L rates for the various girls.

Klein (US)

W/L = 6/3 (66.6%)

• Rin - VolksUSA- WON
  
• Sakura - VolksUSA- WON
  
• Saber Lily - VolksUSA- WON
  
• Lucy - VolksUSA- WON
  
• Cirno Volks INTL- WON
  
• Sakura (Sakura Taisen) - Kerbey Lane- WON
  
• Rise VolksUSA- LOST
  
• Noumi Kudryavka VolksUSA- LOST
  
• Noumi Kudryavka Volks INTL- LOST

I don't enter for many dolls, really. My win rate on limited outfits is TERRIBLE but I haven't lost on a doll yet.

 

Suzuna (USA)

W/L = 2/0 (100%)

[*]Haruka Niimi - Kerbey Lane - WON

[*]Aoko Aozaki - Volks USA - WON

Edited January 14, 2013 by Guest