The Lottery Win-rate Thread!!! (Stats updated! 18-1-13)

I will say my luck is much better with winning dd lottery than resin lottery, I think I'm like one win for five losses with resins.

White Christmas Alna - Dolpa 24 - Volks USA - LOST

This doesn't make sense. Volks USA ended up with leftovers of this doll and she was purchasable by request from Volks USA several months after the event.

edited my earlier reply with exact numbers since I am back on my regular computer...hope it helps

Archangeli (Canada)

W/L = 1/2 (33.3%)

 

• Rise Kujikawa - Volks Intl - LOST
  
• Natsuki v.2 - Volks Intl WON
  
• Aoko - Volks USA - LOST

 

Worth mentioning, but technically not "lottery" -

• SD16 Daria - Volks USA- WON (purchased directly from Volks USA after their lotto period, but it was still treated as a lottery entry. When they reimbursed me shipping for a damaged item, they emailed me saying "we'll refund it to the credit card you paid for your lotto entry with")
   
  
• Airy - Volks Intl- WON (purchased directly from Volks Int'l store after AE)

Sakura Shinguji = won - Volks USA

 

Note: She was the first and only image character I ever put in for. (so far) ^_^

MissLadyBossy (USA)

W/L = 2/1 (66.666%)

• Aoko Aozaki - VOLKS USA- WON
  
• Sakuya Maxima - VOLKS USA- LOST
  
• Sakuya Maxima - VOLKS International- WON

Neris - Volks USA - WON

Lucy Maria Misora - Volks USA - WON

Cirno - Volks Intl - WON

Rise Kujikawa - Volks Intl - WON

Miki Hoshii - Volks Intl - WON

Melty - Volks Intl - LOST

Aoko Aozaki - Volks Intl - LOST

 

If it wasn't for this Lottery, I'd still have a perfect win rate.

White Christmas Alna - Dolpa 24 - Volks USA - LOST

This doesn't make sense. Volks USA ended up with leftovers of this doll and she was purchasable by request from Volks USA several months after the event.

 

*shrug* I don't know why I didn't win. I barely got the cancellation notice on my order status in time to enter into the international lottery. I think that was the latest VolksUSA has ever done that... I remember some people winning 3 Lilys (KL, VolksUSA, Intl) because of the timing. That's probably why they had extra Alnas, because people who won her at KL, WLD, or Intl asked VolksUSA to cancel their win with them, because they're the most willing to accomodate. But VolksUSA still received the same number of dolls.

 

I didn't follow up with VolksUSA after the fact because I won both dolls through the Intl. But I know for certain that my list is correct, because I keep all my emails and confirmations.

W/L = 1/10 (10%)

 

Rin Tohsaka - Volks International - LOST

Saber Lily - Volks International - LOST

Noumi - Volks International - LOST

Millhiore - Volks International - WON

Mariko Sensei - Volks International - LOST

Cirno - Volks International - LOST

Sakuya/Maxima - Volks International - LOST

Rise Kujikawa - Volks International - LOST

Aoko Aozaki - Volks International - LOST

Melty - Volks International - LOST

 

Such luck

aiRreyes (Philippines)

W/L = 2/0 (100%)

 

• Kujikawa Risa (Persona 4) - Volks International - WON
  
• Melty (Shining Hearts) - Volks International - WON

 

Shailara (Greece)

W/L = 0/2 (0%)

---

Melty - Volks International - LOST

Melty x-mas version - Volks International - LOST

 

Haaaaaaa... U___U

Edited January 26, 2015 by Guest

Take into mind I only claim one, but I usually win multiple times. XD

 

• Airy - KL- WON
  
• Akira - KL- WON
  
• Lucy - KL/WLD- WON
  
• Aoko - KL/WLD- WON
  
• Sakura Shinguji - WLD- WON < Canceled
  
• Kujo Kazuya - KL/WLD- WON < Canceled
  
• Saber Lily- KL/WLD- LOST

W/L = 1/0 (100%)

 

• Kujikawa Rise (Persona 4) - Volks International -LOST

Edited July 26, 2014 by Guest

Nkei (Canada)

W/L = 0/2 (0%)

 

Lucy (ToHeart) - Volks International - LOST

Kujikawa Risa (Persona 4) - Volks USA - LOST

 

Haha ouch

Thought I'd look at a doll-by-doll breakdown. I only counted dolls with 3 or more entries just to have some minimum data set.

 

It's interesting in that you'll see a general correlation between the after-market inflation rates and our win rates. Obviously not an exact match, but overall decent correlation.

 

The "Volks actually made enough" category where everyone won!

---------------------------------------------------------------

1. Airy

2. Mari

3. Moe 2nd Version

4. Sakura Matou

5. Sakura Shinguji

 

The "You probably won this, but it wasn't a gimme" category (51-99%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Akira (66.67%)

2. Haruka Niimi (85.71%)

3. Lucy (66.67%)

4. Miki (80%)

5. Neris (83.33%)

6. Rin (66.67%)

 

The "Flip a coin" category (50%):

---------------------------------

1. Alna White Christmas

2. Mariko

3. Sakuya (Shining Blade)

 

The "You probably didn't win this one unless you entered a lot" category (25-49%):

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Cirno (33.33%)

2. Melty (35%)

 

The "Be glad you won but don't gloat or I'll punch you in the face because I probably didn't" category (1-24%):

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Aoko (20%)

2. Rise (23.08%)

3. Saber Lily (22.22%)

 

And the last "Volks hated us all equally" award where no one won category:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Kud (0%)

iomi (Qatar)

W/L = 2/0 (100%)

[*]Rise Kujikawa Volks intl- WON

[*]Aoko Aozaki Volks intl- WON

Dollfriend (Italy)

W/L = 3/0 (100%)

• Haruka Nimi Volks Int.- WON
  
• Rise Kujikawa Volks Int.- WON
  
• Sakura Shinguji Volks Int.- WON

Edited January 27, 2013 by Guest

Yami (Germany)

W/L = 1/0 (100%)

• Beatrice - Volks International - WON

We could add more data soon when we find out what happens at this Dolpa. It will be interesting to see since this one seems less popular. There might be a lot of people holding out for the DDs at the next Dolpa.

The "Volks actually made enough" category where everyone won!

..

 

The "You probably won this, but it wasn't a gimme" category (51-99%)

..

 

The "Flip a coin" category (50%):

..

 

The "You probably didn't win this one unless you entered a lot" category (25-49%):

..

 

The "Be glad you won but don't gloat or I'll punch you in the face because I probably didn't" category (1-24%):

..

 

And the last "Volks hated us all equally" award where no one won category:

..

I hard LOLd!!

The "Volks actually made enough" category where everyone won!

..

 

The "You probably won this, but it wasn't a gimme" category (51-99%)

..

 

The "Flip a coin" category (50%):

..

 

The "You probably didn't win this one unless you entered a lot" category (25-49%):

..

 

The "Be glad you won but don't gloat or I'll punch you in the face because I probably didn't" category (1-24%):

..

 

And the last "Volks hated us all equally" award where no one won category:

..

I hard LOLd!!

 

Those stats are fabulous

Not sure this is the right place to post but I entered the International lottery for DD Lucy and Nanami and her guitar set, and I think I've won all three. I haven't received an email yet but I have checked my account on the Volks website and there are links to finalise the payment on all three! I'm really happy coz this is the first time I've ever entered but unfortunately will only be able to keep one doll, (my friend offered to buy Nanami). I'm hoping one day I'll be able to find Nanami on the secondary market as I already have her sister Natsuki hehe! I'm really excited to have them home!

From the HTDP Osaka7 After-Event:

 

Nanami was possible to buy if you were one of the first 45 people in line. So, roughly 1/3 of the people there were given the chance to buy before the few dolls they had finally sold out.

 

Semi-White Lucy could have been bought by anyone and they still had some after the event was over.

 

From my spot in line I could have bought either one, but actually bought neither. I'm not sure how to count those things in the stats since it wasn't the same kind of lottery.

I guess this was the easiest to win dolpa lottery ever due to the close schedule to next dolpa and not very attractive characters.

 

Poor Lucy I think she is just beautiful in many ways.

 

From the HTDP Osaka7 After-Event:

 

Nanami was possible to buy if you were one of the first 45 people in line. So, roughly 1/3 of the people there were given the chance to buy before the few dolls they had finally sold out.

 

Semi-White Lucy could have been bought by anyone and they still had some after the event was over.

 

From my spot in line I could have bought either one, but actually bought neither. I'm not sure how to count those things in the stats since it wasn't the same kind of lottery.

I guess this was the easiest to win dolpa lottery ever due to the close schedule to next dolpa and not very attractive characters.

 

Poor Lucy I think she is just beautiful in many ways.

 

From the HTDP Osaka7 After-Event:

 

Nanami was possible to buy if you were one of the first 45 people in line. So, roughly 1/3 of the people there were given the chance to buy before the few dolls they had finally sold out.

 

Semi-White Lucy could have been bought by anyone and they still had some after the event was over.

 

From my spot in line I could have bought either one, but actually bought neither. I'm not sure how to count those things in the stats since it wasn't the same kind of lottery.

Yeah, I actually really wanted Nanami, but couldn't justify getting her when I suspected Asuna would be released soon. I just hoped that I'd be able to pick her up later since she wasn't super sought after.