The Lottery Win-rate Thread!!! (Stats updated! 18-1-13)

Wow, it seems the purchase and win rate is pretty statistically high here.

Wow, it seems the purchase and win rate is pretty statistically high here.

 

It's because we regularly cull the membership by sacrificing the people with the lowest win rates to the dark Volks gods. It's a win-win situation as it inflates our numbers and appeases the bloodthirsty dark ones who give us our DDs in return for the blood we shed.

yama (Sweden)

 

W/L = 3/0 (100%)

 

• Miki Hoshii (DDS) - Volks Intl.- WON
  
• Creamy Mami (SDGr) - Volks Intl.- WON
  
• Yuu Morisawa (SDGr) - Volks Intl.- WON

I don't know if you count dolls other than DDs for the statistics but I listed all dolls I've entered in a lottery for just in case.

Bluefox99 (United States)

W/L = 9/3 (75%)

Nanoha - VolksInt- WON

Illya - VolksInt- WON

Sasara - VolksUSA- WON

Rin - VolksUSA- WON

Saber Lily - VolksUSA- WON

Neris - VolksUSA- WON

Sakuno - VolksUSA- WON

Noumi Kudryavka- VolksUSA- WON

Sakuya Maxima - VolksUSA- LOST

Natsuki ver 2 - VolksInt- LOST

Melty - VolksInt- LOST

Nanami - VolksUSA- WON

 

 

My luck was pretty good until last year. All lotteries I've entered have been with just a single application. Hopefully Nanami will be the start of another win streak for me.

I want to know how bad was Asuna's rate, so I update my win rate ^^

 

Singer Yuna (Spain)

W/L = 1/1 (50%)

 

• Kujikawa Rise (Persona 4) - Volks International - LOST

• Yuuki Asuna (SAO) - Volks International - LOST

Edited July 26, 2014 by Guest

Okay, this might be a long replies. so sorry about posting too much

 

Firstly. I have two method about entering an Volks International Lottery , One is a Lotto Farm and One is a Highly-Reputation ID ( That I hope that will help.. but not much LOL)

 

Lotto Farm (LF) is a lot of newly-registered id which has nearly none same information and if there's a win in any ID and there's no one grabs it. then that id got trashed ( never use that ID again / sometimes got banned from VOLKS's Lottery System too, but rarely. neary 40+ ID in two years got banned only once)

When Entering Lotto with a farm. I must check that every ID is non-same name,username/password,addresses and telephone number. also enter every lotto with nearly different IP Address. (by using the proxy) . also I will not enter more than 1 order sheet per ID with this group.

 

and Highly-Reputation (HR) ID is the id that enters lotto in normal way, no Address Change , Paids Every Lotto in FULL and Quickly as possible, sometimes orders normal stuff from web store. sometimes enter more than 1 order sheet per ID

 

I'm entering the lotto on first day that volks annouce.

 

The Result Below (include data from my friends too):

Saber Lily : 1 HR 1 LF

Got Fullset from HR

got maid set from LF

got avalon from HR

 

Rin : 1 HR , Got it , PAID

 

Sakura Matou : 1 HR , Got it , PAID

 

Sakuya Maxima:

1HR 5LF : got from LF , other lost

 

Sakuya Touhou:

2HR 4LF : got 2 from HR got 1 from LF. paid 2 on HR

 

Haruka:

1LF - win but cancelled.

 

Cirno:

1HR 4LF : got all , paid 1 on HR , 1 on LF

 

Aoko

1HR 9LF : lost all

 

Asuna

3HR 24LF : lost all , EPIC FAIL also my frind got another 14 entries and lost them all too.

 

Alice

1HR 8LF : lost all

 

Melty

1HR 9LF : win 1 on HR

 

Nanami + Guitar Set

1HR 2LF : win all , paid on HR and cancel 2 on LF

 

Milhi

1HR 2LF : win 1 on LF

 

SD Victorique

1HR 1LF : win 1 on HR

 

Beatrice :

1HR 4LF : ALL LOST

 

Akira :

1HR : WIN

 

 

Miki

1HR 7LF : win 1 HR win 6 on LF , paid 1 on HR , paid 2 on LF , cancel 3

 

 

Rise

1HR 2LF : win 1 on HR and 1 on LF , paid 1 on HR

 

Mariko Sensei

1HR 2LF : win 1 on LF win 1 on HR , paid 1 on HR

 

Sakura Shinguji :

1HR 5LF : win ALL , paid 1 on HR , 1 on LF , cancel all others

 

 

that's all i write down an lotto result log. I think the lotto event is more harder everytime because anyone will use the "Lotto Farm" Tricks more and more. If I remember Correctly. on last year the "order number" when you going into the lotto event do not increase much on first day on the lotto and the last day. but this time on dolpa 29 and 30 , the number goes as high as 2000+ per event. ( see the order number such as 13051800350XXXX ) and compare with id that enter lotto on first day and last day.

... Lotto farming is a new one on me.

it feels wrong to me like some scalping methods

I entered 3 Lotteries

 

1 Alna - won

1 Sakuya - won

1 Alice - dont know xD

Jullietta (USA)

W/L= 8/1 (91%)

 

Moe - Volks USA WON

Mashiro - Volks USA WON

Saber Lily x 2 - Volks USA & Volks Intl WON

Neris (Shining Hearts) - Volks USA WON

Airy (Shining Hearts) - Volks USA WON

Sakuya (Shining Blade) - Volks USA WON

Melty (Shining Hearts) - Volks USA WON

Yuuki Asuna (SAO) - Volks Intl LOST

Galvatim (USA)

W/L = 5/3 (62.5%)

• Louise - Volks USA- WON
  
• Natsuki - Volks USA- WON
  
• Sakura - Volks USA- WON
  
• Airy - Volks USA- WON
  
• Kudo - Volks USA- WON
  
• Cirno - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Rise - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Aoko - Volks Int- LOST

 

I also flat out bought Mari from Volks International, as some dolls were left after the lottery had ended.

it feels wrong to me like some scalping methods

 

I kinda agree. I think it would technically be against Volks rules, but that is a whole other can of worms that I am not touching.

Lotto Farm (LF) is a lot of newly-registered id which has nearly none same information and if there's a win in any ID and there's no one grabs it. then that id got trashed ( never use that ID again / sometimes got banned from VOLKS's Lottery System too, but rarely. neary 40+ ID in two years got banned only once)

When Entering Lotto with a farm. I must check that every ID is non-same name,username/password,addresses and telephone number. also enter every lotto with nearly different IP Address. (by using the proxy) . also I will not enter more than 1 order sheet per ID with this group.

 

And from a post about Asuna and the Dollpa 29 after event...

FYI : my Lotto Group Contains 38 ID of which non-same name,username/password,addresses and telephone number. also enter every lotto with nearly different IP Address.

 

As someone else said in reply in the Asuna/Dollpa 29 topic, wtf!?

 

Um, correct me if I am wrong, but you just explained how you are breaking the rules of the Volks lottery system, even admitting to having been banned. I'm not sure if you're trying to impress people, but you're essentially admitting to using unethical (at the least) methods to get around the lottery rules. Given most collector's attitude towards scalpers, I hardly think that bending the Volks lottery rules beyond the breaking point will earn any respect at all. Basically this means you're breaking the lottery rules to get a doll or dolls that other collectors who did not break the rules, could have had.

 

I mean, no offense or anything, but that is essentially what you are saying here.

 

 

Are we supposed to respect that?

 

SakuraDreams (South Africa)

W/L = 2/0 (100%)

• Sakura Shinguji Volks Int.- WON
  
• Asuna Yuuki Volks Int.- WON

Chise (USA)

W/L = 1/3 (25%)

• Natsuki v2 - Volks Intl- LOST
  
• Sakura Shinguji - Volks USA, Volks Intl- LOST x2
  
• Nanami - Volks USA- WON

 

I tend to enter more lotteries for outfits than dolls, and lose them just as often

Syaoran (USA/Japan)

W/L = 4/13 (31%)

• Rin Tohsaka - Volks USA- WON
  
• Nanoha Takamichi - Volks USA- LOST
  
• Sakuya Izayoi - Volks - Dollpa / AE- LOST & WON
  
• Neris - Volks - Dollpa / AE- LOST x 2
  
• Melty - Volks - Dollpa- LOST
  
• Saber Alter - Volks Intl / USA- WON & LOST
  
• Asuna - Volks USA / Intl- WON & LOST
  
• Sakuya (Shining Blade) - Volks Intl / Dollpa- LOST x 2

 

If you remove Dollpa & AEs(After events at stores in Japan, not the online one) then I am 3/6 (50%)

Cristal Zhaduir (Spain)

 

Asuna - Volks Intl- LOST

Asuna - Volks Intl- LOST

Goharago (Canada)

W/L = 0/7 (0%)

• Aoko Aozaki - Volks USA / Volks Intl - LOST x 2
  
• Melty - Volks USA / Volks Intl - LOST x 2
  
• Alice Kuonji - Volks USA / Volks Intl - LOST x 2
  
• Yuuki Asuna - Volks Intl - LOST

 

To sum it up my lucks rotten and all my girls have been purchased in the after-market at ridiculous prices =.=''

S1Charade (Australia)

W/L = 8/3 (72%)

• Illya - Volks Int- WON
  
• Tohsaka Rin - Volks Int- WON
  
• Saber Lily - Volks Int- WON
  
• Cirno - Volks Int- WON
  
• Alice - Volks Int- WON
  
• Miki - Volks Int- WON
  
• Niimi Haruka - Volks Int- WON
  
• Mari - Volks Int- WON
  
• Melty - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Shinguji Sakura - Volks Int- LOST
  
• Aoko - Volks Int- LOST

This thread is so helpful! I can't wait for my first try at the lottery, but I'm also scared ;3;

I want to know how bad was Ranko's rate, so I update my win rate ^^

 

Singer Yuna (Spain)

W/L = 2/2 (50%)

 

• Kujikawa Rise (Persona 4) - Volks International - LOST

• Yuuki Asuna (SAO) - Volks International - LOST

• Shibuya Rin (im@s cinderella girls) - Volks International - WON

• Kanzaki Ranko and casual gothic outfit (im@s cinderella girls) - Volks International - LOST
• Sailor Venus - Volks Intl - WON

 

About the theory of highly reputation id, when I won Shiburin I previously bought successfully two after event outfits in the click wars and paid them asap. I don't know if those +10000 yens influenced in my winning ticket for Shiburin but not for Ranko, but Rise is really happy she's going to have a sister ^^

Edited August 29, 2020 by Singer Yuna

I updated mine since I've entered more lottos since the original post, but overall my success rate is about the same- 21%

I don't know that other purchases factor in at all, I think it really is random.

I updated mine too. I'm diluting my old wins with many straight losses. haha >_

Skaf (USA)

W/L = 1/1 (50%)

• Erica Fontaine - Volks USA- WON
  
• Kanzaki Ranko - Volks Intl- LOST