The Morals Associated with Lotteries

Lately I've been thinking about Volks' lottery system and whether or not the decisions we make to get the doll(s) we want are morally correct.

 

What is your opinion on having multiple entries? As in, having a spouse, relative, or friend enter with you to increase your chances.

 

What is your opinion on entering the lottery for someone else? For the sake of helping someone else win (you don't necessarily know this person). Do you feel that that just takes away someone else's chances of winning?

 

What is your opinion on winning two dolls? Is it okay to keep both or is it unfair?

 

Hypothetically, if you were to win multiples of one doll, would you sell one for the after market price or closer to the retail value? *Adding: I ask this because, in a perfect world, Volks has a one entry per person rule. So winning two would essentially mean you won a doll that could've gone to someone else.

 

Editing to enter my POV:

 

I have only entered one lottery. I entered without the help of others. I respect Volks' one doll per entry rule and wished that others did the same. If they weren't limited, then go crazy. I wouldn't want to enter for someone else because that wouldn't be fair to others.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Guest

I only speak for myself but I'll be honest.

 

I wouldn't ask a spouse or a friend or whoever to get me a an extra chance.

If by design, we were allowed to have more one entry, Volks wouldn't limit each person to just one.

 

They do this for two reasons:

1) Scalpers

2) Equal Distribution

 

By going against the rules, we are essentially also taking chances away for others that probably want her just as much as you do.

 

If I get extras, I'm likely to keep her rather than sell her.

I personally will enter 3-4 times if I really love a doll, if I win more than one then I pass my winning entry accounts onto people who did not win themselves

When Saber Lily was announced, I was determined to get her. So I entered for her via Volks USA. But as the deadline approached, I began to worry that maybe I will lose, so I did make another entry on Volks International just in case. I ended up winning both of them. I saw some people on twitter lost, so I broadcast I had one on International for whoever wanted to take her and passed that entry over to a friend.

 

I didn't advertise I was going to do multiple entries like that and I made sure person I passed entry to did in fact lose / wanted her. I wasn't going to just pass her to a scalper to profit.

 

That was the only time I did it. Do I condone it as regular course of being in this hobby, no especially. Not everyone that does it does so with noble intentions. I would much rather see a DD with an owner that would appreciate her over some scalper or owner that just sees her as another trophy / number in their collection. But those are the breaks sadly.

I only do single entries myself. I generally agree with Nekopon's position; Volks limit it to 1 entry per person per lottery to provide a fairer opportunity for entrants in that lottery, and personally I'm not willing to breach that.

 

As an Australian the other angle that kind of frustrates me is the exclusion of international entries to the USA lotteries, particularly when the USA lottery is run before entries to the international lottery close like with Dolpa 28. In those cases the only lottery we're eligible to enter has its numbers increased by others who are effectively able to use it as a second chance draw. I don't begrudge people entering like that, it's more a frustration at Volks' rules in that case.

 

That said I've personally had pretty decent luck with the lottery, and I'm in a position where I've been able to time holidays to Japan for the last two years to attend the end of year Dolpa, which did give me a somewhat better shot at some (though the high queue number I received both times instantly dashed those hopes .

I never really liked multiple entries and until dollpa 28 I had never personally done them. I remember the days when no one even discussed multiple entries at all, but these days it seems a rising trend that people try to order as many dolls as possible, for whatever reason.

 

I get it now though, I understand why some people want to do it. I entered the international lottery for Melty on 3 entries. I want Melty so much that I actually cried over losing her, more then once, I have never felt that way about a doll before, I didn't even cry over Saber Lily. because I wanted her so much, I didn't want to leave it up to one chance so I did 3 entries.

 

I could have done up to 7 entries if I chose to, but I did not, I did only 3, i thought that was a fair amount. For me though, I'm jealous of the options available to USA Volks customers, they get multiple entries, I wanted multiple too.

 

For USA buyers, they get so many chances to enter lotteries and win dolls, I think that is kinda unfair sometimes to the rest of the world. When USA people can have 4 tries at a doll (volks, volks int, kerbey lane and we love dolls) I can sort of understand why international people place multiple entries wherever possible, they just want to maximise their chances of winning too.

 

I know even in the USA there is no guarantee that they will Win the doll they want every time, but statistically they have a much greater advantage over those of us who can only do Volks International. Why should I have only 1 entry when the USA get 4?

 

Everyone the world over should get the same chance, but they don't, so I think as long as you aren't doing a mass number of entries (5 plus) multiple entries, it's to be accepted these days.

 

If I had won more then 1 Melty, I would have possibly kept a second to get a custom face up on and split up the clothes, wig and eyes. If I didn't want multiples of a doll, I would give the login details to a friend who did want the doll, they could then get it for retail price only and I know many worthy people, most of which are more worthy in my eyes then some of the actual winners. I would never consider to scalp a doll.

 

Obviously all the above is based on genuine enthusiasts, not scalpers. Scalpers quite obviously have a complete lack of morals.

 

To be honest, the worst moral I've seen this lottery, is the attitude of some winners. I think there has been a lack of respect this time around where some people aren't being mindful of others feelings. That bothers me way more then multiple entries does. that's a topic for a whole other thread though.

I haven't entered a lottery since there really hasn't been a doll I wanted that was put up in a lottery, but lets say a T-ELOS dollfie was a lottery only girl. Pretty good chance I would do it. I'd do it like how Ultimaknight did and if I got an extra, I'd give it to someone who'd want it.

 

Would I get a friend to do it for me? Nah, because I'll be honest, I'm lazy, I wouldn't do it if my friend asked me. I'd reply "Nah...don't feel like it |x", so why bother asking them if I wouldn't do it for them?

 

If I wanted the doll that badly, I'd settle for paying out the extra

i think its bad to use multiple entries. like some say there are reasons why they limit to 1. as for the usa chances. maybe they has a gut reason for it or maybe they just dont see the problem yet. who knows maybe someday in the future they will exclude usa from the international lottery. but then you have all sorts of other problems like character licensing. see kosmos

I personally don't know anything about the lottery so I don't have much of an ideas on it to begin with but in my opinion it is nice idea but I dislike anyone that multi enters. They should just be happy that got to have a chance to enter, if they don't win then its just fate. if i new how to i would of loved to get Ms. Mariko but its my loss for not entering or having money XDD

 

For USA buyers, they get so many chances to enter lotteries and win dolls, I think that is kinda unfair sometimes to the rest of the world. When USA people can have 4 tries at a doll (volks, volks int, kerbey lane and we love dolls) I can sort of understand why international people place multiple entries wherever possible, they just want to maximise their chances of winning too.

 

I know even in the USA there is no guarantee that they will Win the doll they want every time, but statistically they have a much greater advantage over those of us who can only do Volks International. Why should I have only 1 entry when the USA get 4?

 

Everyone the world over should get the same chance, but they don't, so I think as long as you aren't doing a mass number of entries (5 plus) multiple entries, it's to be accepted these days.

.

 

 

Same thoughts here. So i think also its ok to ask friends to enter too for a doll you really want ^__^

I had once a bunch of friends enter SOOM lottery for me, for a certain long sold out doll that was not really popular and sadly thus hard to get second hand (and for a crazy price usually too of course).

We actually won three, and after I made sure I would get one I asked around who tried to get one but didn't win, in the end not only me was happy but two other persons too since they were able to get this doll brand new and for a good price.

 

Personally I am actually against making more than one entry, but I also think it's unfair when others simply do this, win and you are left behind

And if I would win more than the amount I personally want, I would always make sure to ask someone first who tried to win and were not able to do so. One hand washing the other, to say so, and I hate it when people sell dolls for crazy second hand prices shortly after they received the doll fresh from the company.

I only want to be happy with my doll, so why should I spoil the happiness for someone else? If you already betrayed the system, you should at least be fair and kind enough to give someone who didn't win (maybe because of you) to get the other slot you won

 

And seconding what aquilla says. The US guys are getting the chance to order 4 times, why shouldn't others be allowed to?

I understand that Volks Intl and Volks USA would have a hard time cross-checking entries for duplicates. But I thought that Volks USA and the USA dealers did cross check so as to not allow duplicate wins. Is that not correct?

 

Only a time or two have I entered thru a dealer and Volks USA just in case, but if I won thru a dealer - I immediately contacted Volks USA and told them to please remove me before they even did their drawing, (they used to give the dealer announcement ahead of time) doing so proactively. I have never entered thru both dealers for myself because I knew I would have to cancel on one or the other and I didn't want to make that choice.

 

Since there are two collectors in my house, we both have entered separately before if it was a doll we both wanted. I even contacted Volks to ask if this was okay because I did not want to break any rules. They told me it was okay. The few occasions we both have gotten the same doll, we have never sold/scalped or whatever. They were for our own personal (and individual) collection.

 

I don't care for people for buy up extra dolls in order to scalp others on the after market. If it if for personal use, then I suppose it is their own conscience matter. But I wouldn't rub it in the nose of those who lost out completely.

 

This is a hobby not a business, IMHO.

 

My only set of twins in my collection - one was won in a Volks USA lottery and the other was bought used much later on.

 

As for people outside the US gaming the system, I understand the frustration. I have lived in the UK before. I guess it is all up to whether or not you are a stickler for rules. There are things released only to Japan or Asia at times or only through Volks Intl. I can only suppose that Volks have their reasons for how they distribute and sell the dolls (other than licensing). But even if US residents have 4 chances to enter, I don't think anyone should be able to win more than one doll. Again, just my opinion. We all have one.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Guest

I hate it when people sell dolls for crazy second hand prices shortly after they received the doll fresh from the company.

 

This. It really irks me when people win and immediately sell the doll for a crazy price. That doll could've went to a permanent home by someone who really wanted it

As far as I know, we don't get four chances but two in the USA.

 

Kerbey Lane and We Love Dolls communicate back to Volks USA with the information about the winners they've gotten so they do not double with Volk USA's entries (Supposedly this is how it's supposed to go but I've heard people won multiple times, perhaps a miscommunication along the way somewhere). Therefore, the only chances we get are USA (No matter whichever company you choose) and Volks International.

 

You can also say it's not fair that Japan gets more chances compared to everyone else because they also get Dolpa but if we think about it, it's because they have the market there, no? Therefore, they get more chances. I believe that is the same case in the USA where we have a larger market than most of the world, except for Japan. This is also the reason why we have a Volks store in USA and not in another country. It's not anyone's fault but the need for DDs in each countries' market.

 

Also, I wanted to point out the win ratio from America to other countries on this forum. It may seem like a lot of wins are from the USA but please keep in mind that this is basically an English-only forum. Therefore, most of us will be English native speakers (Many Americans are here since English is their native language)- that is why the American/Canadian winners seem dense here. e.g. If you went to a Chinese forum, the win ratio might be mostly populated in China instead.

Why should it be against the rules to increase your chances if you can as long as you only walk away with one doll? I entered for Aoko three times and only one her once (through USA) and had I won more than one? I would have passed her up to someone else who wanted her. I entered for Melty twice ultimately and lost both times- but I only entered through Int. because I lost through USA.

 

With Aoko, I admit I was desperate. I wanted her so badly that I knew if I didn't win I would cry over her. I feel so fortunate that she's coming home because she's a dream. I don't feel my entering 3 times affected anyone else owning her- my name was only drawn once.

 

Now, I do have a problem with people who get and flip immediately, but then again, there really isn't a control over that except "don't buy from the scalpers." And some people will because they're desperate for that doll- there's a market for it. But anyways, I have to agree with Nekopon, I think that the results here are a little skewed. I don't think mostly USA or EU people won Aoko overall- I'd guarantee that the majority of people who have her live in Japan- but being an English speaking forum, we don't have the data needed to see the true amounts of people who got her... just people who are here and people who speak English.

Well, it is 4 chances since each dealer does their own lottery, winnings are just capped at 2. Don't confuse them.

 

Personally, while I hate to say everyone else is doing it... well, they are. If not you, than a scalper, or a "desperately crying collector". The system is what it is because there is NO simple or cheap method to weed out the "immoral" entries, even ignoring that people will certainly disagree on what immoral means. The lottery is acceptably fair, since the lonely-single-entry can still win, and is simple enough for Volks to implement as a business.

 

The other low cost fair way to sell is a click war. I would certainly NOT view that as an improvement.

"The other low cost fair way to sell is a click war. I would certainly NOT view that as an improvement."

 

Definitely NOT an improvement.

 

I never really liked multiple entries and until dollpa 28 I had never personally done them. I remember the days when no one even discussed multiple entries at all, but these days it seems a rising trend that people try to order as many dolls as possible, for whatever reason.

IMO the trend towards multiple entries is directly correlated with the ever-rising popularity of Dollfie Dreams. When I first got into DD through adopting Rin 3.5 years ago, the USA had a "lottery" but it was one in name only. The number of entrants was few enough relative to the supply of dolls that I can't recall ever hearing about anyone losing. There was zero need for multiple entries since your shot at winning with just one entry was probably north of 95%, and hence nobody bothered with extras.

 

Today, there are way way more people entering for any given lottery. I have no idea what the number of entrants is or how large the supply of dolls is, but I'm going to guess that the probability of winning per entry has fallen to a dismal 5%. With those odds, it's really zero wonder that we see people getting fed up and looking to raise their chances through multiple entries!

 

So, that is my thought on why you see this trend in the community.

@gaiaswill: we needz a psycho pass system

IMO the trend towards multiple entries is directly correlated with the ever-rising popularity of Dollfie Dreams. When I first got into DD through adopting Rin 3.5 years ago, the USA had a "lottery" but it was one in name only. The number of entrants was few enough relative to the supply of dolls that I can't recall ever hearing about anyone losing. There was zero need for multiple entries since your shot at winning with just one entry was probably north of 95%, and hence nobody bothered with extras.

 

I mostly blame Danny Choo and his flock of sheep.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Guest

There was zero need for multiple entries since your shot at winning with just one entry was probably north of 95%, and hence nobody bothered with extras.

 

Heh, that's how I ended up with 3 Feenas and Estel back yonder in '07. Was totally noob and didn't know the winning ratio so I defaulted to "you will lose" mentality for my grail, and for Estel too as a consolation entry. I conscripted my sister and friend to put in entries. I didn't even know KL and WLD existed at the time.

There was zero need for multiple entries since your shot at winning with just one entry was probably north of 95%, and hence nobody bothered with extras.

 

Heh, that's how I ended up with 3 Feenas and Estel back yonder in '07. Was totally noob and didn't know the winning ratio so I defaulted to "you will lose" mentality for my grail, and for Estel too as a consolation entry. I conscripted my sister and friend to put in entries. I didn't even know KL and WLD existed at the time.

 

Wow if I knew that, I would've entered for Feena!

 

The win-rate looks more to be around 50%. Out of 98 individual entries, 50% of them were wins, 50% were losses. The 98 is a pretty large sample, so the 50% is probably a reliable estimate; unless it just so happens that more winners have posted than losers.

 

If the win-rate were 5%, the chance of someone winning two dolls would be .25% (0.05 * 0.05 = 0.0025). The chance of 6 people both winning two dolls, as is reported in the lotto thread, would be so exceptionally slim that it would essentially be possible.

 

That's why I think the win-rate is pretty damn high.

The win-rate looks more to be around 50%. Out of 98 individual entries, 50% of them were wins, 50% were losses. The 98 is a pretty large sample, so the 50% is probably a reliable estimate; unless it just so happens that more winners have posted than losers.

 

If the win-rate were 5%, the chance of someone winning two dolls would be .25% (0.05 * 0.05 = 0.0025). The chance of 6 people both winning two dolls, as is reported in the lotto thread, would be so exceptionally slim that it would essentially be possible.

 

 

98 is NOT a statistically significant sample size. There is no reasonable way to infer any meaningful data from it. A sample size of several thousand people would be required first. Additionally, to quote your example, the chances of winning two dolls is not 0.0025. The chance on the first doll is 0.05 and the chance on the second doll is 0.05. Multiplying those together does not result in your chance for two dolls because the two events are completely independent (different lotteries. Additional entries in the SAME lottery will improve your chances). What does change, as you increase the number of entries, is the likelyhood that you won't fail to win every single one.

 

On topic: I'm pretty new to all this, but I don't think I would enter multiple times even if I had the opportunity. As much as I might desperately want a given doll, so do the other collectors and entering multiple times is not fair on the others who may want her as well. Sure, you can argue that they can do the same thing, but the fact that "everyone does it" is one of the oldest moral fallacies in history. Yeah, with one entry you may lose, and that's unfortunate, but we need to keep in mind that there are other people who want them just as desperately as we do. And anything we do to reduce their chances (relative to ours) is immoral.

That is really fun that you guys are talking about all the fabulous statistical data we can't see. I really wish Volks would publish numbers. It would be so cool to see all the trends. The only thing we can do is try to collect some sample data from participants but that is highly biased. As pointed out before, this is an English speaking forum so that is one bias. People who are willing to divulge their winning percentages may be people who win more often or lose more often instead of an unbiased cross section.

 

The statistic significance of a sample number of 98 would depend on the total population size and the degree to which we want to be confident of that the percentage of wins is accurate within a particular margin of error. We don't know the population size, so it is hard to determine statistical significance. Confounding factors include different dynamics in the international and US lotteries, differences in the number of DDs produced for each particular Dolpa, differences in the number of lottery participants, differences in the number of DD set aside for the US lottery versus the international lottery, and probably lots of other variables.

 

It would be great to see data on each Dolpa on how many people entered for each DD and the number of wins so chances of winning could be calculated. I am sure things have changed over the years.

 

Some pretend numbers because I can't resist thinking about it:

 

Dolpa 19 Saber

20 Sabers set aside for the US lottery, 40 people entering -> 50% chance of winning

200 Sabers set aside for the International lottery, 1000 people entering -> 20% chance of winning

 

Dolpa 24 Saber Lily

40 Sabers set aside for the US lottery, 400 people entering -> 10% chance of winning

400 Sabers set aside for the International lottery, 4000 people entering -> 10% chance of winning

 

The numbers are totally random. I just think it is fun to fantasize about all the data.

 

In the end though, winning or losing a DD is a very personal matter and all the numbers in the world can't change that. The heartbreak of losing can't be quantified. The amount each person wants a particular DD can't be quantified and compared to another person's want. There are also cases where you think a particular DD is all you ever wanted, but when you see her in person there isn't an emotional connection. All this can't be reflected in walls of numbers.

-snip-

 

Independent probability.

 

 

If 1000 people entered only one lotto, we would expect 950 to lose and 50 to win.

If 1000 people entered two lottos, we would expect 903 to lose, 95 to win 1 doll, 2 to win 2 dolls. Entering two lottos increases the number of people that win at least one doll, but also gives a very slim chance for people to win two dolls.

 

Here's a slide from one of my uni lectures on conditional probability:

 

So yes. It doesn't change the fact that the probability of winning one lotto would still be 5% regardless of what has previously occurred. This is an estimation of the probability of each outcome (there are four outcomes) BEFORE any event has occurred.

 

Anyway the lotto thread is just for fun. A way of members to track and see how much everyone else wins, and also to get some vague idea of what everyones' chances will be .