The price flux of some girls

So I was browsing the marketplace and noticed a couple of Aoko's for sale and saw that her price was what I would pay for maybe Saber Lily. So I thought to myself, "why has her price skyrocketed to that much when her fullset isn't even comparable to that of Lily or (maybe) KOS-MOS?" and not to mention it's so soon after the release. I noticed the same thing with Fate although I'm not sure if her price was a steady increase or not.

 

• Why do you think this happens? Is it simple supply vs demand? Or is there another reason?
   
  Do you think it's acceptable for everyone (I noticed the same thing on YJ!A but less so since the only Lily on there was extortionate, so I'm not naming names or anything) her price so much so soon?
   
  Are there any other girls this can also be said for?

we have kinda similar thread iirc

DD price increases or decreases are entirely attributable to supply and demand I believe, with various factors affecting the demand for a doll. In cases like Aoko, who is now selling at several times her retail price, I think the high demand is for these reasons:

• General franchise. Aoko is TYPE-MOON, and many folks will want her based on that alone (TM collectors).
  
• Doll herself. Aoko's one stunner with those blue eyes and mischievous look. DD people will want a well-made gal, regardless of whether they know her game.
  
• Status symbol. As the high percent of people who lost her at dolpa or lottery becomes known, this will attract the interest of people who have deep pockets and want to be one of "the chosen few" who have her, further bumping demand. (a luxury product with tight supply constraint is Volks' doll marketing in the first place, but now you get another layer of status on top).
  
• Speculators. As the price starts going up at a faster-than-normal rate, additional people are going to see that and want to hop on the gravy train, hoping the price rises further still (feedback loop). These folks are looking for an appreciating investment, whether doll, house, stock, or something else. Additionally, there might also be some speculators at the very beginnning - anyone who knows the history of TYPE-MOON DD prices and hopes to get in on the ground floor, betting on another runaway. Aoko would've been a stellar bet here.

 

With that many different types of people all gunning for one doll, demand is going to severely outstrip supply and she truly will be hard to get. Even right from the get-go.

 

You can compare that with other dolls who don't have the same built-in factors to pump up demand super-excessively beyond the supply that Volks makes, and hence those dolls maintain reasonable, non-runaway pricing in the secondary market.

I think the increase in the cost of base bodies combined with the body shortage has made limiteds that much more expensive.

 

There was a time that heads were much more than bodies. Then a time when they were similarly priced. Now the heads are back to being higher. But since the bodies are higher, then the cheapest limited heads seems to be starting at $350 - $450. Then it just goes up from there. If heads are already so high and expensive bodies just add to that, it seems like new limiteds are always well over $1000.

 

How much over $1000 depends on popularity - like SakuraSylph said, supply and demand. I thought it was interesting that Melty turned out to be the underdog. People wanted to go after Aoko more at first compared to Melty. Then Melty disappeared seemingly suggesting lower numbers available. She later resurfaced at higher prices. Her head alone went from 31k yen to over 50k yen.

 

I also see what WoundedNight64 means. Not too many years ago, Saber Lily might be around $1600 because of her high retail price reflective of her deluxe full set. I don't follow her price but she might still be around that or around $2000. Original Saber seems maybe consistent too and pretty high. It almost seems like the older limiteds stay around their price once the aftermarket settles out.

 

50k yen is a decent/average price for a Melty head? There is one up for auction now for 58k yen and it might actually sell for that price someday. 50k yen used to be the price for a Ryomou head. It might even still be the price for a Ryomou head. How do the new ones start out at coveted rare older limited value? People have to buy them at that price to establish that as a market value. Sasara didn't get to as high as she is without people buying her at that price.

 

Anyway, it is very discouraging that things got this expensive. It is part of the reason it is hard to stay interested in this hobby. It also makes it hard for newer people to get into it too.

I noticed that some dolls which were going for very high prices 6 months ago have started going down- Rise for example. Once the rush of desperate lottery losers is over, and excitement dies down a bit, there's a chance prices for Aoko and Melty will slide a bit. I don't know that they'll ever reach close to retail again, 90k seems to be the default price for newer DD nowadays. It is discouraging to have your heart set on a doll and Volks makes the lottery odds so harsh. I can only hope for more pre-order options and maybe something like FCS in the future

I think "supply vs demand" rules the final price.

 

For instance, the price of Lucy. Even the new version has more stunning outfit, but her price is still lower comparing with the 1st version after market price. Whoever wants her already got her a while ago.

Lucy price did not follow other ToHeart2 girls (Sasara and Tamaki). The same series of characters can only use as a reference, but not a standard.

 

Another good example is Saber Alter. Why is the 1st version still more expensive than the per-order one if they share the same head?!

Another good example is Saber Alter. Why is the 1st version still more expensive than the per-order one if they share the same head?!

There weren't any more Alter I's made, so this is a case of the original doll retaining most (but not all) of her previous value. The v2 had a new outfit and the head is comparable but a little different too. So the dolls aren't directly the same.

 

In case you're wondering, the original Alter head has a hard headcap, less blushing, and is ever-so-slightly smaller physically versus AlterII. The same is true of blue Saber vs Saber Extra, although the faceup is changed to a greater degree for that pair.

Edited March 19, 2013 by Guest

I can only hope for more pre-order options and maybe something like FCS in the future

 

I'm guessing that FCS is a different version of FCFS: First Come First Served?

 

I can't see this being a good distribution mechanism, since it leads to a situation where people either camp out for rediculous periods (which always looks trashy and try-hard, not to mention unfairly punishes people with jobs. Sorry iCultists ) or leads to a situation where 90% of purchasers will be speculators looking for resales.

 

While I haven't participated in a lottery yet, it's definitely a fairer system for distributing a limited product.

 

Even blind auction is a fairer system, and it's also pretty bad. Total production run isn't announced, individuals place their bids and the top bidders all get 1 each at the bid they made. While this seems like it leads to a situation where speculators win, it actually leads to a stabilisation of price because those who bid high regularly lose money on their investment. Collector's can bid at a value of meaning to themselves, while the speculators have to bid low(ish) in order to get a return on investment. Of course, it's still an unfair system, but at least it doesn't preclude people who have to work.

I'm guessing that FCS is a different version of FCFS: First Come First Served?

No, it stands for Full Choice System. This is something that Volks does for their Super Dollfies if you go to one of their stores. They have a giant rack of 50 or more heads, and you get to "build" your own SD from the ground up with one of the employees. It can take 2-4 hours (or more) to decide everything. Tenshi no Sato artists then make and paint your new SD for you exactly the way you want it.

 

You can't get limited outfits this way, but you can get heads to recreate (some) old limited SDs. If you really wanted a SD Shinku for instance, you could buy her head as part of your FCS doll and have Volks paint it like Shinku.

 

The heads that are available, as well as welcoming "default" outfits, change up a little a couple times a year.

 

I long for something like this for Dollfie Dream. Lately I've been buying floating heads just to try them out for a specific character doll I'm trying to make, and doing this is getting awfully expensive. I'd like to be able to sit down in a room and just pick one out of all the available options!

 

Every time Volks has a survey for VS members, I put FCS for DDs down under "things you want to see Volks offer in the future." Maybe one day they will...

Yes, definitely a FCS for DDs will be, like, dream come true. It may lack the original limited outfit but still, the possibility of buying some limited head for a reasonable amount...

I'd buy at least one in an heartbeat

I'm guessing that FCS is a different version of FCFS: First Come First Served?

No, it stands for Full Choice System. This is something that Volks does for their Super Dollfies if you go to one of their stores. They have a giant rack of 50 or more heads, and you get to "build" your own SD from the ground up with one of the employees. It can take 2-4 hours (or more) to decide everything. Tenshi no Sato artists then make and paint your new SD for you exactly the way you want it.

 

Now that's a cool system.

 

Would love to see that implemented.

50k yen is a decent/average price for a Melty head? There is one up for auction now for 58k yen and it might actually sell for that price someday. 50k yen used to be the price for a Ryomou head. It might even still be the price for a Ryomou head. How do the new ones start out at coveted rare older limited value? People have to buy them at that price to establish that as a market value. Sasara didn't get to as high as she is without people buying her at that price.

off topic but, interesting. i do prefer melty too in my opinion

o.O i really want melty! actually i think im getting her but i also cant believe how much they are going for

Melty turned out so cute. I hope her price improves like jadepixel mentioned. It would be great if prices settle out after the excitement dies down a bit or after distractions from the next Dolpa's limiteds are established.

Many DDs after market prices are much higher this year than last few years.

I guess this is another example of supply vs. demand.

Maybe the soft yen is also a factor and of course, the infamous inflation

The whole thing is a bit annoying, though. It makes me feel pressured to reeaally consider every girl to make sure I don't want her, since if I regret not getting her I'll pay for it. Even a less popular girl will undoubtedly go up in price, as opposed to when in the past unpopular girls might still be for sale in the store afterwards. I think it's the scalpers doing that- the more collectors, the more scalpers, until every girl sells out and rises in price.

So it all comes down to supply and demand in the end. The hype of the girls contributes etc, but really it's just the simple way of things.

 

Off the topic: FCS for DDs, so much yes! I love my one FCS girl because she's exactly what I want her to be. If I could do that with someone in a room in one sitting that would be perfect. Volks could offer the LE heads and we could make our perfect little girlies. I think that would make everyone rejoice and from Volks' point of view it would boost sales tremendously.

I noticed that some dolls which were going for very high prices 6 months ago have started going down- Rise for example. Once the rush of desperate lottery losers is over, and excitement dies down a bit, there's a chance prices for Aoko and Melty will slide a bit. I don't know that they'll ever reach close to retail again, 90k seems to be the default price for newer DD nowadays. It is discouraging to have your heart set on a doll and Volks makes the lottery odds so harsh. I can only hope for more pre-order options and maybe something like FCS in the future

I've noticed this too. With both Rise and Melty. That's good for me

Another good example is Saber Alter. Why is the 1st version still more expensive than the per-order one if they share the same head?!

 

Because of her fullset, a lot of Type-Moon collectors want her too.

I think another issue with the price influx is that there's the idea around DDs and even resin BJDs that you can buy a girl up front and can make 200-600$+ just from buying/reselling her immediately after she arrives. I've noticed lately not just with Aoko but this idea that you just *have* to make some decent pocket change on top of the original girl's price/shipping. Some older dolls I can see (to some extent) and maybe even some of the newer ones. Don't get me wrong if I had Aoko and wanted to sell her I'd maybe try to get the most out of her as I could but if I needed the money right away (due to bills or whatever) I'd make it much more realistic as a higher price tag can mean you wait months upon end just to find someone willing to make that purchase. Does waiting months on end hoping to sell a girl for 1200 come out better than having an immediate sale for say 800-900? (I say that not having an answer lol it just one of those pondering questions... XD)

 

At one point or another I wondered if I wanted to just buy some girl with the idea of flipping it later for some decent profit... (as some seem to do that just with DD bodies/heads already anyway... -___-) but the plan takes tons of up front costs that personally I don't see being worth it in the end.

 

But really any girl is worth what someone is willing to pay for her (that's just economics). So if there are people out there in this crappy economy with 1200-1600$ to burn on a gal that was 600-700$ well.. good for them.. o___o (slight tinge of jealousy.. lol) and lucky for the seller who's able to get that price.

 

Personally, with most (not all mind you) gals it just pays to wait and you'll find a reasonable seller who's just out to recoup their initial investment (plus maybe 10%-20% due to them being LE). It takes longer and is not for those that have very little patience. But there are more realistic sellers out there just takes time : )

It's actually rather weird, isn't it?

In cases of old limiteds I often understand the higher prices.

Throughout the years the possibility to buy a mint full-set of a long sold out limited goes down and down, thus the price gets up because this mint full-set becomes more rare. You start out with 300 full-sets, people split them up, they get stained or damaged, people wipe their face-up, and suddenly you have only maybe 80 sets left, some of them never unboxed.

Of course getting such a set is more expensive, especially when it's a big one with an armor for example.

 

However, nowadays prices skyrocket shortly after the dolls being marked sold-out. They don't get gradually more expensive but often seem to start at a big price only to, hopefully, maybe, get cheaper after a while. Some don't get cheaper and stay the same for a long time, some suddenly fall down in value as soon as most of the people got her and the doll thus starts to become less interesting for scalpers.

 

We are, partly, making up our own problem here. The hobby itself is very exclusive in many cases and also presented like that to others.

Real DDs can only be bought from one company, nearly every doll you see is limited and no matter when* you enter the hobby: you will have missed the majority of dolls already.

Sure, you have your basics, but the majority of people collect limited dolls, and even the basic ones are mostly sought after in their limited versions, be it their make-up version or as custom from a well known and expensive customizer. Heck, even the bodies are hard to get!

When I ask people from outside the hobby about DDs they always tell me that they are afraid to enter the hobby because everything seems so exclusive, hard to get and being pushed by this horrible word "limited" in all their decisions is something they just don't enjoy.

 

What I want to say with this:

If a hobby already gives you the impression to be exclusive and super expensive, no matter what kind of doll you want to get, you are not surprised about the prices shown to you after you enter the hobby. And scalpers and re-sellers simply know that. They know that people expect these prices and thus will pay them, they entered the hobby with this knowledge after all!

It's a vicious circle actually, and it's partly our own fault. As long as people are paying these prices they will exist, and as long as they are forced to do this by scalpers, VOLKS and the hobby itself it won't ever change anyway :'D

 

I hope I don't sound bitter or something, but I often shake my head when for example a simple basic wig that looks like many other wigs I have seen or bought already gets sold for 150$ just because it's "OMG LIMITED!!!1"; no matter how boring it might look like and how bad the quality is. That's how far the word limited can push something.

 

*of course this does not apply to people who have been in the hobby for many, many years...but I doubt that this is the majority.